Energy Bills Are About to Hit Dire Heights
Picture this: by the end of next year, roughly 10 million British households could be squeezed into fuel poverty as average yearly bills tumble toward £3,250. That’s half the population or more than 8 million people, roughly a third of all UK homes.
What the Experts Are Saying
- Cornwall Insight — one of the UK’s veteran energy analysts — warns that most families may see bill totals topping £3,359 from October onward, a figure that won’t ease until the last quarter of 2024.
- Energy Regulatory Agency (ERA) forecasts that from January, the price cap will rise to £3,616, and another jump to £3,729 is expected in April. The MBA—no, that’s the abbreviation for “Monthly Billing Adjustment”—only gets one—they’re not giving us a break.
Craig Lowrey’s Take
Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, summed up the situation in a single sentence that could be a headline: “Customers will sadly grow accustomed to ever‑upward price cap forecasts.”
He highlighted that the underlying drivers—global wholesale markets, geopolitical supply concerns, and a persistent shortage of alternative sources—are all primed to keep prices escalating.
“There’s less than a month left to get the next price cap announced. Given the trends in the wholesale market and the chatter about Russian gas, the prediction is likely to go up.”
The Duration Dilemma
It’s not just the bigger numbers that scare us. It’s the long haul of these increases that turns the forecasts into a nightmare.
Government Aid: A Small Helping Hand
Even though the government pledged £400 in support for the October rise, the updated price cap forecast has climbed over £500 higher since that pledge was tabled. That means the promised assistance will barely scratch the surface of the problem.
Lowrey warns that tidying up VAT or tweaking policy costs will only leave “a dent” in the bill—regardless of how many politicians talk about saving the day.
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