Fed Holds Rates Flat While September's Cut Feels Like a Coin Toss

Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Heads to a Smoother Future

The Federal Reserve decided not to raise or lower interest rates on Wednesday—just when everyone had already plotted it on their charts.

Why the Quiet Move?

Because the market was already clued in that rates would stay where they are. The Fed’s decision fit the expected pattern, meaning traders felt confident in their predictions.

Powell’s Calm Detour

Chair Jerome Powell cracked a slight smile and eased the buzz around a potential September rate cut. Even though the Treasury’s hopes fluttered at a 50‑percent chance, Powell’s subtle nod hinted at a cooler outlook.

Key Takeaway: The Fed’s Stable Play

Rates unchanged this week, matching market predictions.
Powell signals a slower adjustment timeline, reducing the September cut odds.
Financial markets breathe a sigh of relief—no sudden shocks on the horizon.

In short, the Fed’s choice to stay put allowed investors to keep their routines and spread the news with a touch of optimism and a sprinkle of surprise.

Interest rate cut expectations pared back

Fed’s Fifth‑Time Stay‑Put, but a Few Voices of “Cut‑It‑Down”

What the FOMC Really Did

The Federal Open Market Committee tossed a 9‑to‑2 vote, saying “let’s keep it steady” – leaving the benchmark at a 4.25%‑4.50% range.
Two governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, didn’t quite join the chorus. They both advocated for a 25‑basis‑point cut, kind of like asking for a coffee‑size downgrade.

Chair Powell’s Post‑Meeting Pep Talk

While the decision matched what markets were expecting, Chair Powell rolled out a “take‑it‑slow” message in his press conference.
He emphasised the uncertain terrain of upcoming tariffs, saying the economy might feel a bit “surprise‑bump”‑y.
⏳ The takeaway? Let’s “wait‑and‑see” before rushing to any cuts.

How the Market Is Responding

Right after Powell’s words, market betting shifted a little. The probability of dropping the rate at the next September 17th FOMC meeting has slid from a robust 65%+ down to a more modest 43%.
The drop signals that investors are trading in caution, wary of the tariff roller‑coaster that’s still in the tracks.

Why It Matters

The interest‑rate decision can influence everything from mortgage rates to how many people will be able to afford that trip to Bali.
A cut could give a boost to spending, but the Fed is pulling its teeth, preferring to keep the economy in check until that unpredictable tariff curtain finally lifts.

Bottom Line: Stay Ready for the Unexpected

In a nutshell, the Fed decided to hover at the current rate, but a handful of policymakers pressed for a tweak. Chair Powell’s calm‑down message nudged market hopes down a notch, signalling that any action in September will be taken only if the situation turns out less wild than guessed.

Trade uncertainty remains ahead of tariff deadline

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Talks Tariffs & Inflation with a Twist of Caution

After a brisk meeting, Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chief, gave a little hunched‑over overview of how trade tariffs might steer the inflation wheel. He made it clear that while the Fed keeps its eyes on the price rabbit, it’s not ignoring the nagging question of whether tariffs will nudge inflation up or stay put.

What’s the Deal with Tariffs?

Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, declared the August 1st tariff deadline “firm”, meaning no more extensions. Still, the President keeps the door open for negotiations a little later. Deals have gone down the road with the EU, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the UK. But China’s talks? They’re pushed to August 12th.

Inflation: The Unpredictable Sidekick

Fed’s Playbook: Keep prices predictable.
Tariff Wild Card: Could push or pull inflation.
Power Move: Ignore the horn but still watch it.

Why Should You Care?

Simply put, if tariffs shift, it could change how much your coffee costs or how fast rent goes up. That’s why the Fed’s watching those trade moves closely. The goal? A stable economy where your wallet feels less like a weather alarm.

Bottom Line

Tokens of uncertainty are still on the table, but both the Fed and politicians are playing their cards carefully. The tariffs deadline is set—no extensions—but negotiations for China keep rolling. The Fed is riding the wave, hoping the inflation tide doesn’t crash.

Gold recovers Wednesday’s late sell-off, silver under pressure

Gold’s Bounce‑Back, Silver’s Slow‑Slide

After a dip on Wednesday, gold has pulled back, like a bruised but determined runner. Silver is still caught in the hot hand, showing signs of ongoing pressure.

Dollar’s Re‑Rise

The U.S. greenback has slipped back into levels that last appeared more than two months ago. With the heavy sell‑off from earlier this year sorted, the dollar is looking to climb again in the coming weeks.

Impact on the Metals

Gold: Stays on a cautious path as the dollar’s upward momentum keeps pressure on it.
Silver: Remains under fire; a reversal hasn’t yet knocked it up.

Looking Ahead

Expect the dollar to keep inching north, which could squeeze both gold and silver further as the market moves.

US dollar index – daily chart

Gold’s Current Stand: A Bumpy Ride Through Consolidation

Gold’s price is stuck in a multi‑month consolidation pattern—think of it as a financial hovercraft on a foggy sea. To move forward, it first needs to push past the 50‑day moving average before attempting to touch its recent high again.

Why The Big Picture Still Looks Good

Strong Backdrop: Even with a stronger US dollar, gold and silver are still riding a wave of positivity thanks to geopolitical jitters and bulk bandwagon tactics from central banks.
Gradual Gains Ahead: Future upside may be choppier than the last dance steps. The big play here is that all‑time highs—gold’s latest peak and silver’s 14‑year record—might feel the pressure as tariff worries calm down and the hope for interest‑rate cuts matures.
Stay Tuned: The next few months will probably see the markets kicking a bit, but less explosive than before.

Gold – Daily Snapshot

Check out the daily chart for the youngest visual show of what’s happening on the spot. It’s like watching a suspenseful thriller—just without the drama.

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