Crude Oil Futures: Finding Their Footing Again
Oil prices took a little dip but are now rattling back to life, thanks in big part to a noticeable fall in U.S. supply levels.
What’s Feeding the Rally?
- U.S. Stock Shrinks – The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 6.014‑million‑barrel drop for the week ending August 15, way past what people expected.
- API Says the Same – American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a 2.4‑million‑barrel decline, hinting that demand is still firing on all cylinders.
- Higher Demand = Higher Prices – With consumption in the U.S. staying strong, the squeeze on supply is a good reason for prices to climb.
Geopolitics Wipe‑out Warning
While the oil markets look upbeat, folks are keeping a wary eye on the ongoing peace talks between the U.S., EU, Ukraine, and Russia.
- If the talks hit a green light, new sanctions could roll off Russia, meaning more Russian crude could flood the market and bite prices down.
- Should the talks stall, sanctions might tighten again, making it harder for Russia to ship oil to current buyers – a move that could give prices a lift.
Do Nothing Like the Fed!
The next big event on the horizon is the OPEC meeting on September 7. After the August 3 assessment, members are eyeing a September cut of 547,000 barrels per day, which could shy pressure off the market.
OPEC keeps the policy lines flexible, ready to pause or backtrack depending on whether they overshoot production. A pivot there could toss a lifeline into the market’s buoyant waters.
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