Govt’s Welfare Bill: A Tightrope Walk
The next Tuesday will decide if the new welfare bill swings into Parliament or falls short. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that the tweaks to incapacity and disability benefits could shave £13.7 bn off the public purse by 2029‑30. Of that, a whopping £9.2 bn comes from the re‑engineered Personal Independence Payment (PIP).
What Happens If It Stumbles?
- Chain‑recursion alert: A failure would wipe out the slender £9.9 bn buffer that underpins the Chancellor’s Stability Rule.
- Fiscal dilemma: To stay honest to her own rules, the Chancellor would need to either slash current spending or hike rates.
- Autumn crunch: The decision will push her into a rock‑solid moral quandary—ask for more taxes or bite the current budget.
Why We Need a Stronger Fiscal Foundation
When business and consumer confidence are already sitting on thin air, political wobble only adds fuel to the fire. Drilling a clear, consistent path—and widening the fiscal allowance—will help the Chancellor gain credibility. Some may dish up nasty tax hikes this fall, but that is still better than a protracted, sunken economy that grows from piecemeal policy fiddling.
In short, a solid bill could spare us a financial cliff and give the Chancellor a chance to keep the economy on solid ground.
