Fed Holds Rates Steady, Steering Economy Into Stability

Fed’s “Stay‑Put” Strategy Continues: What You Need to Know

The Big Decision: Rates Stay as They Are?

Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chief, will most likely keep interest rates steady at Wednesday’s policy meeting. Unlike a wild roller coaster ride, this “wait‑and‑see” approach has been the Fed’s mantra all year.

Bloomberg’s CME FedWatch reports a 99.9 % probability of no move on rates.
Market pricing pushes the odds up to 85.5 % that rates will hover between 4.25 % and 4.50 % by July 30.
After the decision, Powell’s press conference and the Fed’s infamous dot plot will be the must‑watch clues for any policy shifts.

Economic Pulse‑Check: Inflation Shakes Down, Jobs Stay Strong

Data from this month paint a reassuring picture. Inflation is easing but work keeps booming.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) nudged up by 0.1 % in May, with an annual pace of 2.4 %.
Non‑farm payrolls added a solid 139 k jobs in May, beating the expected 126 k.

Tightening Trade: Trump’s Tariff Tango

Even though the economy looks good, President Trump’s new tariffs—rolled out in early April—have yet to hit the numbers.

These “Liberation Day” tariffs could lift inflation later in the year.
The president keeps tweaking rates, leaving traders backstage with an ever‑changing script.
While the U.S. is slowly gaining traction with some partners, Trump insists a minimum 10 % global tariff baseline will linger.

Israel‑Iran Spat: Economics on Edge

The Middle East is heating up again. Recent Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear sites sparked a retaliatory dance, and a warning to relocate 300,000 Tehran residents is already sounding alarms.

Financial markets dislike drama; conflict fuels the demand for safe havens.
Gold, the classic go‑to in uncertain times, continues the upward trend.

Gold’s Game Plan

Gold’s journey has been a roller‑coaster, but the trend looks bullish.

Started the 2023 season on a high note around $1,813 / oz.
From mid‑May to now, the 50‑day moving average has been a solid red line of support.
The MACD indicator is on the positive side, with the 12‑period line dancing above the 26‑period line.
If gold pushes past the all‑time high close at $3,500 / oz, the next hurdle could be the round numbers at $3,600 and $3,700.
Initial support surfaces at the 50‑day MA and the swing low from mid‑May at $3,121 / oz.