Federal Reserve Keeps the Ball Rolling: Rates Stay on the Same Track
So, the Fed decided not to touch the interest rates this week, just like the market was itching for. But there’s a twist: Chair Powell has dialed down the hype for a September cut.
What This Means for the Economy
- Stability Alert: Rates stay the same, so steady as a calm sea.
- September Surprise: The Fed’s calendar now looks a bit less spicy.
- Investor Mood: Markets breathe a sigh of relief but keep their eyes on the ticker.
Why the Fed Did This
Imagine the Fed as a poker player who raised the stakes until the pot was just right. They’re playing it safe, keeping the odds flat while scanning for any signs of inflation tipping the deck.
Look Ahead
While the rates haven’t jumped ship, everyone’s watching the Fed’s next moves like a live episode of A Game of Thrones—except with fewer dragons and more graphs.
Interest rate cut expectations pared back
Fed Holds Rates Steady, but Two Voices Are on the Cutting Edge
Hot, Cold, and a Touch of Heat: The Vote
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) went into the meeting with a clear majority: 9‑2 to keep the federal funds rate at the 4.25%‑4.50% band. However, Governor Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller—the only two dissenters—flagged a potential 25‑basis‑point rate cut. Think of them as the two friends in the room who keep asking for a shortcut to the pizza place.
Chair Powell’s Warm Welcome to the Wait‑and‑See Lounge
Following the vote, Chair Jerome Powell stepped up for his weekly press conference and gave the market a gentle nudge back to a cautious stance. He noted that the forthcoming tariffs are still a mystery, and suddenly the Fed feels under the weather. “We’ll hold off on cutting until we have a clearer picture,” he said, turning the seat of the debate back into a waiting room for September.
Market Predictions: A Slower Turn Is Now in Play
- Before Powell’s remarks: the popular sense was a 65%+ chance of a rate drop on September 17th.
- After the comments: the odds dip to 43%.
- Bottom line: the market is feeling the buzz of uncertainty—like a hummingbird hovering over a price chart.
Why It Matters for You
If you’re a homeowner, investor, or just someone who follows the market for fun, the Fed’s decision signals a pause in the tightening cycle—no immediate cuts, but eyes still peeled for the next move. Keep an eye on the upcoming tariff news; it’s the flip‑flop that could play a deciding role.
Trade uncertainty remains ahead of tariff deadline
Powell’s tariff musings: The Fed’s “dial‑ing it in” amid trade twists
Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, gave a quick update after Monday’s policy meeting. He reminded everyone that tariffs—those pesky taxes on imports—are still a wildcard when it comes to inflation. Think of it like a game of darts in a dimly lit pub: you’re trying to hit the bullseye (stable inflation) while your opponent keeps flicking the ball (tariffs) toward the board.
What the Fed is looking at
Powell said the Fed is nibbling through tariff uncertainties while carving out its next monetary moves. The message? “We’re keeping an eye on those trade taxes, but we’re not letting them dictate the play.”
- Tariffs could whisper or shout about future inflation.
- Policy makers are waiting to see how the next inflation shockwave unfolds.
- The central bank, meanwhile, is focusing on the classic Fed agenda: rates, employment, and the Great Indoors.
Friday’s tariff deadline: no more extensions
Last Friday (August 1st) the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told the press that the tariff deadline is “firm” – no more extensions. But even as the deadline sticks, President Trump is open to further talks once the tariffs kick off. It’s a bit like the scene when you’re about to leave the house for a party, but your friend keeps calling you back to keep chatting.
Countries on the block
Deals are already in place with:
- Europe Union
- Japan
- Philippines
- Indonesia
- Vietnam
- United Kingdom
China, however, is still in the mix. The negotiations with them have been extended to August 12th. So the dance continues, and we’re all waiting to see whether they’ll bring a new rhythm.
Bottom line
Jerome Powell’s take on tariffs signals that while the Fed keeps treating inflation as the headline story, it won’t ignore the unscripted twists tariffs can bring along. Likewise, the US tariff deadline is set but the debate is far from over—particularly with China, who’s got a bit more time to decide how the party will play out.
Gold recovers Wednesday’s late sell-off, silver under pressure
Gold, Silver, & the Dollar – A Market Comedy Show
Picture this: gold is on a comeback tour after pulling down on Wednesday’s post‑decision dip, while silver is still wrestling with a stubborn slump. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has finally found its groove and is creaming up at levels it hasn’t seen since a couple of months ago.
Why the Dollar is Back in Town
- After a rough year of heavy sell‑offs, the greenback has shaken off the dust.
- It’s currently flirting with prices that last surfaced over two months ago.
- With its multi‑month downtrend broken, we’re looking at a potential rally in the coming weeks.
And the Impact on Metals
The stronger dollar is like a well‑timed referee, putting extra pressure on both gold and silver. Gold’s rebound is a bright spot, but silver’s journey remains uphill.
Bottom Line
As the dollar returns to favor, keep an eye out: gold may shine, but silver could still be in the recovery phase. It’s a dynamic dance between the metal giants and the ever‑fluctuating greenback.
US dollar index – daily chart
Gold’s Rollercoaster: Can It Break Out of the Long‑Term Doldrums?
Gold’s current vibe feels a bit like a stubborn student in a multi‑month consolidation block. It needs to swing back over the 50‑day moving average before it can chase its recent high again.
A Parenthetical Blessing: Long‑Term Backdrop
- Gold & silver are still on a positive trajectory, even with the US dollar flexing its muscles.
- Geopolitical fuzziness plus relentless central‑bank buying are the heavyweights keeping the pair buoyant.
What the Future Holds
Expect more measured gains—not the fireworks we’ve seen lately. Still, as tariff worry fades and interest‑rate‑cut chatter heats up, both gold’s all‑time high and silver’s 14‑year peak might feel the squeeze.
Gold – Daily Chart
Below is the daily snapshot of gold’s action. Keep an eye on the numbers!
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