When Easter Hops, Sales Fall into a Real Bowl of Trouble
Because Easter stuck to April this year instead of March, the numbers that normally line up like a row of Easter eggs go a little crazy. That wobble makes it hard to compare March 2025 with March 2024.
Key Numbers for March 2025 (vs. March 2024)
- UK Total Retail Sales: +1.1% YoY – a modest rise, but the 2024 figure of +3.5% has March 2025 looking a bit snooped.
- Food Sales: +1.6% YoY vs +8.3% in March 2024 – the grocery stalls didn’t get the same hat‑cheer.
- Non‑Food Sales: +0.6% YoY vs a small dip of –0.4% in 2024 – shoppers seem to be tightening the belt on everything but bread.
- In‑Store Non‑Food: –0.1% YoY vs +0.1% in March 2024 – brick‑and‑mortar stores feel a little chill.
- Online Non‑Food: +1.8% YoY vs –1.4% in March 2024 – the digital side is catching a big jump.
Online Food‑Free Penetration
Online purchase share of non‑food items has climbed to 37.1% from 36.6% last year. Still a touch lower than the 12‑month average of 36.8%.
Statements from the Retail Heartbeat
- Helen Dickinson (British Retail Consortium CEO): “Despite chaotic geopolitics, the small uptick in both food and non‑food masks real demand underneath March 2025’s early Easter comparison. Better weather spurred a final‑week surge in gardening and DIY; Mother’s Day boosted jewellery and beauty, but furniture stayed as stiff as a bad winter coat.”
- Linda Ellett (KPMG, UK Head of Consumer, Retail & Leisure): “Spring let’s us get home-bash ready: garden gear and Mother’s Day gifts kept the march moving. Despite low consumer confidence and rising bills, a 1% non‑food growth is an achievement, though the competition is fierce – especially online.”
- Sarah Bradbury (IGD, CEO of Food & Drink Sector): “Confidence slipped from +4 to –2 after a brief boost in February. Geopolitical risk and looming bill hikes dampened shoppers. Half‑term, Bank Holidays, and Easter lift sales temporarily, but tariffs and recession worries keep optimism muted.”
Bottom Line
Retailers are squaring up for Easter, but new wage hikes, a packaging tax and tighter business rates could stir inflation and slow high‑street growth. Investment and wage floors are the lifelines the economy needs right now. Meanwhile, the market remains a bit of a hard‑to‑dine-in soup—celebrate the bright spots, but keep your eye on the cost stew.
