March Retail Prices: A Rollercoaster of Numbers and Retailer Woes
Shop price inflation nudged up to -0.4% YoY in March, beating February’s -0.7% drop and slightly outpacing the 3‑month average of -0.6%. Deflation’s on a brief vacation, but shoppers still aren’t bored yet.
Non‑food inflation settled at -1.9% YoY, matching the 3‑month average but still lower than February’s -2.1%. Clothing and footwear made a double‑digit free‑fall – demand slumped harder than a week‑long ice‑cream break.
Food prices kept marching upwards: 2.4% YoY in March, up from 2.1% in February. Fresh foods dipped slightly but still outpaced the 3‑month average, while ambient items tipped a sharp 3.7% rise.
- Fresh Food inflation: 1.4% YoY (Feb: 1.5%)
- Ambient Food inflation: 3.7% YoY (Feb: 2.8%)
Industry Insight
Helen Dickinson, BRC CEO, said retailers are “doing everything to shield shoppers from cost‑pressure” while noting the Budget’s looming costs could push inflation higher. The new packaging taxes will lift retail expenses by a staggering £7bn.
Fraser McKevitt of Kantar observed that though the number of people “financially struggling” has slightly dropped, 22% of the country still faces tough financial times. Groceries have topped the list of consumer worries, just behind energy bills and the economy.
Mike Watkins from NielsenIQ warned that retailers will need focused price cuts before Easter to bring footfall back up, as rising prices keep shoppers skittish.
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