US Labor Market: Solid but Still a Roller‑Coaster
Friday’s headline told a pretty steady story about America’s jobs scene, but the market’s nerves are still on a roller‑coaster ride. The economy is breathing, but trade uncertainty keeps the tremors coming.
What Happened
- Job gains climbed 151,000 in February – smack in the middle of the 30k‑to‑300k forecast range. A steady beat, not a slam‑dance.
- Three‑month average job growth sits at 200k, comfortably above the roughly 100k breakeven pace. Tiny‑tiny cash‑flow worries feel more far‑away than real.
- Average hourly earnings tapered to 0.3% month‑over‑month and 4.0% year‑over‑year – a gentle lull in inflation pressure.
- Household survey surprises: unemployment ticked up to 4.1%, and participation dropped to 62.4% – the lowest since early 2023. Underemployment rose to 8.0% from 7.5%.
While the jobs report was solid enough to keep the economy on a safe track, the downside risks are still lurking. “DOGE” cuts are expected to begin chipping away payroll figures from March onward. Coupled with a shaky business confidence and Trump’s unpredictable trade moves, the job market might look more like a pandemic than a parade.
Trade Talk – Trump‑Style Turnstones
President Trump rattled off a new round of tariff timelines on Friday, indicating that Canada could face back‑to‑back tariffs as soon as next week. The commercial dance was: Tuesday – tariff set; Wed – tweak; Thu – hold; Fri – expand again. Markets can’t keep up, so investors are playing safe with USD‑denominated assets.
Other drivers include a three‑week losing streak for the S&P 500 (first since August), and a big fall for the DXY over the last two and a half years. Pulling out for a sell‑rally is a strategy that clicks, especially when Europe looks like a bolder choice as governments tidy up fiscal policies.
What’s Holding Back The Bull?
- Uncertainty that changes so often it’s like a weather forecast that flips with the wind.
- Big headlines: “Taking Trump’s microphone away” is a fantasy, pigs flying wannabe.
- Bears get the upper hand, and market headwinds stay intense.
Importantly, we’re not worrying about Fed policy at the moment. Fed Chair Powell signaled that there’s no rush; the economy is in a good place and early interest‑rate cuts are unlikely.
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