Quick Stock Overview
Yesterday’s stock rally was a soft win – a gentle tick up while the dollar slipped back toward 107 on the DXY chart. The market’s appetite hit the floor and then nudged back, leaving investors mildly optimistic.
Why the Dollar is Still Slipping
Trade uncertainty keeps the greenback weak. New tariffs, old tactics – the economy is careful to separate the price wall from the price tag. The fallout is best seen in the currency box: the euro rescued itself at 1.04, the Aussie jumped to a one‑month high at 1.2550, the yen rallied to a year‑high, and the Canadian dollar made a clean ride down from around 1.48 to under 1.43.
Gold – The Bull’s New Home
Yesterday, gold smashed into its fifth consecutive record high. The spot is flirting with the $2,900/oz mark, thanks to safe‑haven sentiment and central‑bank demand from emerging markets. It feels like the bulls are on a bumpy road – holding off a pause until the $3,000 threshold.
Where We Stand – A Day of “Decent‑ish” Mood
Market sentiment is still a shaky ground. Thursday was a physiologically tough day, but stocks closed green after a solvent intraday rally that wowed Treasury yields swinging higher across the curve.
Tech is in the Spotlight
- Alphabet (GOOGL) – Cloud revenue stalled and CapEx exploded. Alphabet’s earnings barely moved the needle.
- Apple (AAPL) – A new Chinese probe into the App Store ↔ real‑world tariff tensions. It’s like a chess game where each side checks the other’s king.
Trade Tension Picks Up Speed
Think of the Trump‑era tariff war as a retaliation party. Future trade will likely drop the ball on direct actions against the tech giants, not just re‑imposing fees. The EU might try the same if the U.S. scales new tariffs. In short, the world feels the sting, but the U.S. economy’s jigsaw puzzle remains less broken than its peers.
Today’s Action Items
All eyes on Threadneedle Street: the Bank of England is expected to cut the Bank Rate to 4.50% – a 25‑basis‑point move for the third time. The MPC is likely to vote 8‑1 in favor. This new move is a stair‑step: still restrictive and gradual to beat inflation. No-sized pivot is cos‑yess at the moment.
Other Data
- U.S. Jobless Claims – next week’s figure and its significance.
- Eurozone Retail Sales – December’s numbers expected.
- Amazon Earnings – pending, with an eye on a potential ±6.3% swing in after‑hours trading. Investors may start warming up or aborting today depending on the outcome.
Take‑away
The markets are in a wrapped‑in-blanket state. Core optimism is holding, but the trade friction and uncertain corporate earnings keep the rumble of volatility always at the back. The U.S. dollar may justify its weakness, and gold keeps staying on top of the pedestal, while the pound and the yen cheer on.
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