Market Digest: A Chill Friday Drop‑In
Yesterday’s trading was a tad quiet, as investors stared at the lingering suspense over President Trump’s next move while gearing up for a whirlwind of data releases that will finish the week.
What’s Happening Now?
- S&P 500 rose to a fresh high after a brief snag in the morning. Analysts think that early wobble was just folks settling positions ahead of “Magnificent Seven” earnings and the upcoming FOMC decision.
- Even if the rally’s pace slows a touch, we still see the market leaning bullish. The next Fed session is likely to be a “skip,” which shouldn’t choke the upside much. Strong tech earnings could keep the momentum going upward.
- Tariffs remain a fog. President Trump’s trade take‑away still feels vague. Most players are shrugging off the uncertainty, assuming tariffs are more negotiation tools than iron‑clad borders. If that assumption flips, risk assets might crunch, but the current path still nudges toward gains.
- For the broader market, the G10 FX and front‑end Treasuries have been parked, like a group of people taking a nap. Though FX implied vol has eased slightly, the USD still isn’t ripe to be shorted given the cocktail of uncertainty.
Quiet Numbers from Yesterday
Nothing dramatic shook the markets: US jobless claims were slightly above forecasts, adding a sliver of downside risk ahead of January’s NFP print. Meanwhile, Canadian retail sales stalled in November but a +1.6% MoM leap for December (as per the “flash” estimate) eased the worry line. In short, the current calm feels like a stagnant pond – not too many animals are swimming to make a splash.
Looking Ahead: What’s on the Calendar?
- One cool snap: the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points last night – a move that met expectations.
- Today’s flash PMI for every developed market is on deck. Those figures will probably confirm the Eurozone’s stagnation, the UK’s stagflation, and the US’s superior performance.
- The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading could be worth a glance this afternoon.
- European Central Bank President Lagarde is slated to speak in Davos, but the ECB is in a quiet period before Thursday’s decision.
- Top earnings headlines include Verizon (VZ) and American Express (AXP), which might give the market a bit of a jolt when opened.
All in all, the market’s asking for certainty in a foggy world. Until the next big tweet or decision pops up, we’ll keep a close eye on the data and the occasional surprise twist from Mr. Trump. Stay tuned – the market’s drama is still unfolding!
