Justin Trudeau’s Ten‑Year Run Ends – What’s Next for Canada?
After almost a decade at the helm, Canada’s Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is stepping down, a move that could catapult the Conservatives into power and give the Canadian dollar a nice lift against the U.S. dollar.
Why Has Trudeau Been Losing the Popularity Contest?
- Incumbency Curse: Once you’re in office for ten years, you’re hardly ever “fresh” anymore.
- Post‑COVID Inflation: Prices jumped up like a popcorn kernel, bashing governments across the globe.
- Housing Crisis: People can’t find decent rental or purchase homes, so the mood is grim.
- Stalled GDP Per Capita: The economy isn’t providing more output for each person.
- Shifting Immigration Views: Public sentiment around newcomers and policy has become a tug‑of‑war.
- Internal Party Slack: Everyone’s fighting over policy as the U.S. prepares to lift 25% tariffs.
Essentially, the economy hasn’t sprouted any garden growth while Trudeau has been at the wheel, which explains the Bank of Canada’s prolonged “dovish” stance over the past year.
What’s the Likely Outcome?
All signs point to a vote of no confidence soon, an early election and a real chance for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to become Prime Minister.
Poilievre’s Playbook
Think of Poilievre as Canada’s own version of Trump – he’s picky about deficit spending, loves deregulation, wants sharper tax cuts, and is keen on a stronger dollar. He’s not shy about saying he’d replace Governor Macklem with someone more hawkish.
Under his tenure, trade with the U.S. might get a little butter-soft, easing the pressure of high tariffs.
How Does This Affect the Loonie?
Today, the Canadian dollar gained over 0.8% against the U.S. dollar, beating the rest of the currency pack. If the Conservatives do win, expect that bullish momentum to keep rolling.
Keep Your Wallet Up‑to‑Date
Want live updates straight to your device? Sign up now and stay in the loop.
