Market Mash‑up: A Post‑FOMC Rollercoaster
Yesterday’s market tug‑of‑war kept the mighty indexes dancing while the FOMC’s hawkiness left everyone chasing the after‑effect logic—like looking for spilled coffee in an empty booth.
What Happened?
- US Dollar rolling back over the 108 mark as traders trimmed their gains.
- EurUSD snagged a sweet $1.04 spot after briefly slipping.
- Japanese yen took a dip, climbing above 157 after the BoJ signaled no “quick 25bp jump” and a subtle shift toward softness.
- British pound held steady at 4.75% after the BoE’s “no change” announcement, despite a tight vote that had three out of nine UK MPC members advocating a cut.
One‑Word Macro Outlook for 2025
- US: Exceptionalism
- UK: Stagflation
- Eurozone: Stagnation
- China: Disappointment
- Japan: Normalisation
Key Takeaways
While the “Old Lady’s” last policy play kept the pound steady, the spike in speculative trading shows that even a steady policy can stir the pot if the votes hint at a cut.
BoJ chatter and BoE buzz kept the Euro‑Dollar tight; the dollar won a few points, but the yen lies stiff because the central bank looks to keep that gentle sleep‑walk going.
Looking Ahead
- UK Retail Sales report: 0.5% rise in November—a figure that could wobble if Black Friday discounts hadn’t kicked in.
- Public sector borrowing numbers out now; investors will keep an eye on how the 10‑year Gilt yield after Budget highs might affect fiscal footing.
- US PCE: forecast shows a 2.5% YoY increase and core at 2.8%—predictable, but still a key touchpoint.
- UMich consumer sentiment: final print at 74.0 expected, no surprises.
Wrap‑up
With the last full working day of 2024 behind us, it’s time to trade a little and then enjoy that holiday cheers. Merry Christmas, everyone!
