Oil Prices Take a Breath After a Fed‑Lily‑In‑Spring Rally
Last night the market exhaled a mix of relief and worry. After a sharp climb, Brent and US WTI futures are holding steady, but the backdrop is still dusty with the same old suspects: the Ukraine conflict and the looming threat of a global supply snafu.
Why the Bull Squeeze Is Still a Thing
Geopolitical jitters are the main heavy‑weight on the trading floor. Russia’s hard‑hat tactics could choke the flow from one of the world’s biggest oil ego‑machines. That fear pumps a temporary bull in crude. Market folks are still whispering that if the disruption rolls off, the price could climb even higher.
Other Forces That Might Pin The Rise Down
On the flip side, U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles have been swelling like a bored stadium. Industry forecasts predict a surplus for the next 12‑month period, which could tame any upward sprint. In short, the same political bulls are still in the garden, but supply and demand have a custodial hand that may keep prices from ascending too steeply.
China’s New Trade Moves Add Encore Uncertainty
Meanwhile, Beijing has rolled out new trade‑boosting policies aimed at popping the energy-import slump. That could be a silver lining for oil demand, but the overall long‑term supply picture appears neutral. If the geopolitical roller coaster remains in the short‑term, we might see a moderate lift, but the mid‑term path is likely to stay pretty level‑grounded.
What’s Next?
- Geopolitical tension remains on a high alert
- US inventories suggest a balancing act in demand
- China’s trade policy could sway the middle‑term course
- Expect a tight but stable price range in the medium future
