Trump’s Comeback Means More Than Just a Political Buzz in the UK
According to Parcelhero, the international delivery game will feel the tremors of Trump’s return a whole lot stronger than the fresh jab of Keir Starmer’s election in the UK.
Why UK small‑to‑mid‑size firms should already be tightening their belts
David Jinks, Head of Consumer Research at Parcelhero, warns that the 20‑January comeback of the former U.S. president has already started rattling global markets. “Goods are moving in a whirlwind,” he says, “so it’s time for exporters and importers to keep their arms on autopilot and fuels ready for the next wave.”
Key Take‑aways: A Six‑Point Action Plan
- Keep pushing with your export plans – Reliance on the UK market is risky business.
- Brace for the worst – A 20% import tax on overseas goods could be the new thing.
- Look out for the best – Trump promised a US‑UK Free Trade Deal if he became president again, and the strong U.S. dollar could make UK goods sweeter in America.
- Embrace crypto – The new administration is a big fan of digital money, so it’s a prime moment to test out blockchain solutions.
- Say goodbye to stale surface mail – Trump is set to trim state‑run services, and USPS changes could mean fewer options and more strikes.
Bottom line: The future isn’t a Gatsby novel. It’s a command‑and‑control thriller.
Businesses that act now can either sidestep the hurdles or wildly jump over them. The choice is clear: stay informed, prepared, and ready to pivot.
Continue with your export plans
Trump’s Victory Hits the UK Smack‑On
When President‑Elect Trump steps into the White House, it’s not just a shift in American politics—it’s a wake‑up call for UK manufacturers and retailers. Labour’s latest Budget may have kept the economic dial from moving, but it sent ripples through both consumers and markets, especially after the CBI warned that the new National Insurance Contributions and other employer cost hikes could feel like a slap in the face to businesses.
Exporters Seizing the Opportunity
With domestic markets looking a bit bleak, it’s no surprise that many businesses have started looking overseas for a fresh boost. According to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, about 22% (more than one in five) of firms with ten or more staff have exported an item—be it goods, services, or a mix of both—in the past year.
The American Dream
Here’s the kicker: A lot of those exported products are headed straight to the United States. America has become the UK’s biggest overseas market, accounting for 17.6% of total UK trade. The combined flow of goods and services—exports plus imports—between the UK and the US reached an impressive £304.3 billion in the first half of 2024. UK exporters alone shipped out £188.2 billion of goods and services into dollar‑laced shores.
Even if supply chains hiccup and some routes get a bit rocky, the trade volume is too massive to drop the ball on. So while Parliament debates the next budget, it might be wise for UK manufacturers to keep their eyes on the big, blue—
- Export beats export.
- Keep the cash flowing.
- Mr. Trump’s win is a reminder: the global stage is still the ultimate game board.
Prepare for the worst…
When Trump’s Trade Axe Hits the UK
Imagine your favourite whisky or a crisp Barbour jacket suddenly turning into a pricey novelty item because a giant’s tax hammer has landed on the export road.
Cost‑Rise Curve – The 30% Spike
Last month, 30% of UK exporters with ten or more staff reported that shipping goods abroad has become more expensive than ever. That’s a jump from the same period last year, and it’s already making traders cough.
Will Trump’s 20% Message Add Fuel to the Fire?
Trump’s promised, 20% blanket import tax is looming like a storm cloud. If that actually goes down the road, exporters will feel the heat even more. Some economists even think a 10% hit might be the realistic outcome, but even that would slap a dent in prices.
Why the UK’s Economy Might Take a Hard Hit
- Growth slowdown: The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warns that a new tariff could cut the country’s economic growth in half.
- Flatter business activity: Lower demand and higher costs could stall new projects.
- Inflation surge: A tax on imports often pushes prices higher.
- Raising interest rates: The Bank of England might crank rates up to curb that inflation.
Beyond Whisky – The Bigger Picture
Beyond the hops or the wool, the looming 20% (or 10%) tariff would affect everything from your favourite gin to the moleskin canvas that keeps you warm on a rain‑swept London stroll. Even the Netherlands‑sourced steel or the sleek aircraft components could fall under Trump’s trade watchful eye.
Will the “$800 De‑minimis” Window Stay Open?
America’s “de‑minimis” rule – a $800 threshold that lets inexpensive goods slide into the US without triggering tariffs – is looking shaky. If Trump revives his classic aerospace and steel trade wars, that low‑cost entry point could vanish, leaving a heavier toll on small‑business imports.
In short, exporters are ready to roll out the defence pouches. But the choice of port might turn inconvenient – and a lot more expensive – than it was before the Trump era launched!
…But be ready for the best
UK‑US Trade Talk: From “Back of the Queue” to “Front of the Line”
TL;DR: Trump dreamed of a no‑tariff pact with Britain. The dollar’s on a roller‑coaster as the pound takes a dip after a sluggish job report.
1. The Tariff Tango
The magnet that most people are braced for is a 20% tariff on UK goods—or maybe not. It’s a potential slap, but it’s far from a guaranteed punch.
Remember when former President Barack Obama said Britain would be “at the back of the queue” for a free‑trade deal after Brexit? Trump, popping out of office in 2020, turned that around, saying he’d put the UK right up front if he’d stayed in the seat. The dream? A sweet deal where British goods drift into the U.S. without pesky taxes, and U.S. goods do the same—no fees, no fuss.
2. Currency Beats & Economic Jitters
Fast‑forward to today’s markets:
- The dollar surged on the thrum of Trump’s win, with investors gushing over what they expect to be widespread deregulation and lower taxes. That sentiment is pushing the green back into the spotlight.
- The pound took a bumpy tumble against the dollar after the latest employment data cooled. Weak job numbers acted like a chill wind over the UK’s economic vibes.
Despite that hiccup, experts are keeping a finger on the “strong dollar” pulse. The implication? U.K. goods get a sweeter deal when they cross the Atlantic, making them more affordable for American consumers.
3. What’s In It For Us?
- Lower import costs for U.K. products
- Complementary product flows—think tech, fashion, and fine English cheeses!
- An uptick in cross‑border collaboration and entrepreneurial sparks, especially for startups eyeing both markets.
In a nutshell, the U.K. can expect to feel the heat of lesser tariffs, while U.S. buyers get a more budget‑friendly sting. Whether the hammer of a free‑trade agreement actually lands is still up for debate, but now’s a great time to keep an eye on the ticker.
Bottom Line
“Brexit” may have opened a door, but the big question is who gets the keys. Trump’s vision painted Britain as the front‑liner; the reality still depends on a mix of political will and economic negotiations. Meanwhile, the currency dance keeps everyone on their toes, watching whether the dollar keeps the rhythm or the pound snaps in rhythm.
Consider crypto
Trump’s Crypto Capital Vision
President Trump has declared a bold mission: turn the United States into “the crypto capital of the planet.” Think of it as taking the Wild West and giving it a blockchain makeover.
The SEC Shakeup
- Targeted Reform: Trump wants to replace Gary Gensler, the SEC chair who championed stricter crypto oversight under President Biden.
- Free‑Spirited Finance: The president’s rationale? “Let the market breathe, let the crypto community thrive!”
World Liberty Financial
- New Venture Launch: Trump has announced the founding of “World Liberty Financial,” a crypto-powered financial arm.
- Mission: Turning dollars into digital assets while adding a dash of patriotism.
DOGE: Not Just a Meme
Enter Elon Musk, the mastermind behind the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Yes, it’s a pun‑laden nod to Dogecoin, the crypto that Musk famously promotes.
- Modern Admin: A new agency to innovate bureaucracy—doggone efficient!
- Crypto Focus: The agency will evaluate how blockchain can streamline public services.
UK Market Implications
UK businesses that now accept crypto payments from American consumers may find their wallets steadier than before. With Trump’s overture, the volatility curve could soften, making digital currencies a safer ally for international trade.
Ditch traditional surface mail
Why UK Sellers Should Map their Route to the US (and What Might Be Hiding in Plain Sight)
Picture this: you’re a small‑to‑mid‑size UK business keen to crack the American market. Your plan? Ship boxes overseas with the trusty good old surface mail. But before you hit “Print Shipping Label,” gate‑keeper emails from the US Post Office might knock your heart – and your profit margin – off a cliff.
Spotting the Hidden Pit‑Falls
- Surface Mail’s Low‑Cost Myth – Most smaller importers trust the palatable, economy surface mail route, believing it keeps costs low. But whispers from the political trenches say it could be a ticking time bomb.
- USPS Privatization: Trump’s Never‑Ending Agenda – Right after the 2016 inauguration, Trump ordered a study suggesting a privatized Post Office would cut prices dramatically—at least that’s the headline. Even Russia‑takedown CEO Elon Musk is eyeing the services with “DOGE‑style” efficiency tweaks.
- DeJoy’s Silent Reign – The former Trump donor, now USPS boss, kept his “reinvent the system” plan in the shadows during Biden’s term. If a partial privatization pops up, he could pull the big levers and stir a storm of cuts.
What This Means for You
With a softened Post Office on the brink, the surface mail you rely on could face two major threats:
- Higher Prices – Under a private split, shipping fees could jump up. Your margins shrink, and you might need to rethink cost‑structures.
- Service Reductions – Less coverage could mean fewer delivery options, slower parcel handling, and why not, even a drop in consumer satisfaction.
Bottom Line: Think Ahead, Not Last‑Minute
Take a moment to scout alternative freight channels—air freight for speed, freight forwarders for reliability, or a knack for digital marketplaces that cut out the middle‑man. By diversifying now, you’ll dodge the impending USPS rollercoaster and keep your shipment clock ticking.
Stay in the loop, stay ahead, and keep your business bag sealed tight. The American market’s as broad as every breeze, but a smooth delivery route is the secret sauce.
