Markets Surge Despite China Stimulus Letdown

Big Finish for the S&P: A Year‑Best Week Wraps Up

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed its strongest week in a whole year. Even as China failed to deliver a fiscal boost, the market continued to smile. The coming week looks quiet, a chance to reset before we jump into the next trading adventure.

What Got the Markets Rolling?

UK Budget Shock – high spending, low growth headline.
Sky‑High Unemployment – a rough NFP print… weather‑wise.
Trump Takes the White House – a clear GOP win that blew up the headlines.
Fed & BoE Rate Cuts – 25 basis points off at each bank.

All of that in one and a half weeks could have left the market all out of breath. Yet, investors seemed to keep a defiant grin, riding the waves of good earnings, solid GDP, and a stubborn “Fed put” that keeps the bulls happy. Even Trump’s hinted stimulus has added a spring in the fiscal powder.

Head‑On to Thanksgiving – The Year‑End Tumble?

Just over two weeks away from Thanksgiving, many institutional players already feel the year’s finish. Positions are being squared off early, a habit amplified by the election. This could mean a softer market if volumes thin out.

China’s Fiscal Flat‑Out

The much‑anticipated NPC meeting turned out to be a seam‑dry disappointment. The 6‑trillion‑CNY local‑govt debt‑swap plan got the green light, but that’s about it. China may keep fiscal fireworks off‑stage until Trump’s inauguration – a strategy to cushion future tariffs. That offers little comfort to markets today, nor does it change the author’s stance on steering clear of Chinese stocks that may become “unwanted guests” if policy shifts.

USD Storms – Broad Gains, Still Bullish

Despite the lagging Australian bond, the U.S. dollar gained across the board. It remains a strong bet thanks to robust economic data, a two‑sided FOMC outlook for 2025, and the inflation gear from potential tariffs. Treasury yields are holding steady – 10‑year rates sit about 15 bps below their highs post‑election, indicating investors are safe‑keeping yields as the Fed targets a neutral 3% borrowing rate next summer. A steeper curve looks to be the play.

Looking Ahead – A Quiet Week Ahead

Today is Remembrance Day (Veterans Day in the U.S.). Take a pause to honor those who gave it all for our freedom.
The rest of the week will likely stay calm after the frenzy of the past fortnight.

So, gear up for some mellow trading, remember those heroes, and keep an eye on how the market’s breathing down over Thanksgiving.

Stay in the Loop—Right on Your Phone!

Hey, you! Want the freshest updates from our post category without having to hunt them down? We’ve got you covered. Keep an eye on this page, or better yet, subscribe now and let the magic happen.