Where We Stand
Job Openings Shock – The JOLTS data for September dropped to the lowest point since Feb‑21, just 7.443 million. That’s because the last working day of the month fell right after Hurricane Helene wiped out the South. In those states alone, openings plunged 325k MoM, making up most of the surprise.
So why does the JOLTS look bleak while the Non‑farm Payrolls (NFP) still brag +254k? It’s a timing mismatch – JOLTS counts the 30th, but NFP covers the week that contains the 12th. The healthy NFP is still valid, just not captured in JOLTS until the very end of September.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board confidence index swelled to its highest point since Jan‑21 at 108.7, giving markets a side of optimism. Thick of this, the US Treasury bounced back, with the 7Y supply holding steady, and the 10Y drinking a glass of 4.30% – the highest level since Jul‑20. The 2Y also nudged above 4.15%, presenting an irresistible deal for short‑term bond bulls.
Currency Movements
- USD/MXN implied vol is up over 23%, suggesting a “Trump trade” is alive and kicking.
- Spot USD briefly topped 2‑month highs at 104.60, then eased after the JOLTS reading.
- GBP slipped past 1.30, hinting that investors keep a closer eye on the UK pound than the euro.
Stocks & Commodities
The S&P steadied, nudging up 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 sprinted +1% plus. Alphabet delivered a solid earnings show, especially on the cloud revenue front. AMD, however, rolled into the red by 5% due to softer Q4 guidance. Gold kept tripping higher – it’s now trading at a fresh year‑to‑date record, up roughly 35% since the start of the year.
What’s on Today?
UK Budget
Chancellor Reeves will unveil a £40bn tax‑and‑spending package, designed to close a hefty £22bn “black hole” in public finances and to free up £50bn for future capital projects under the newly tweaked fiscal rules.
US Economic Data
First, the Q3 GDP estimate is edging toward a 3% annualised growth. The Eurozone, meanwhile, is flirting with a modest 0.2% QoQ rise – a softer picture than the US.
Earnings
Microsoft and Meta will tickle the markets with after‑hours releases, likely triggering the usual 4–7% swings in options. Stay tuned for the full week of “magnificent seven” earnings.
Keep in Mind
With the markets noisy, keep a close eye on these key announcements – they can swing everything from bonds to currencies and even gold. Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!
