Last Night’s Market Shuffle
Yo, stocks decided to play a slow dance after ASML’s earnings slipped, and crude oil didn’t feel the flattery it used to—down about 5%. The market was a bit wonky, but nothing like a full-on bear thing.
What Went Down
- ASML – The semiconductor champ spilled its receipts: Q3 bookings were €2.63 bn, far shy of the half‑petuliael asked by the crowd. Even the big guys trimmed future guidance, hinting more tech turbulence may be on the horizon.
- Nvidia + AMD – With whispers that the U.S. could put a cap on chip sales to a few Middle‑East countries, the tech giants tasted a taste of regulatory fireworks and saw their stocks nosedive. Nasdaq lost a solid 1.4%.
Meanwhile, S&P was a bit kinder, dropping only 0.8%.
Oil: The Price of Drama
- Brent & WTI pulled back over 5% in two days because: Israel seemed to ignore Iranian energy, China’s stimulus felt like a ghost rider, and OPEC kept trimming future demand forecasts.
- Even though the oil price dipped 7% at the start of this week, crappier traders should stay cautious. The market’s already priced in the risk premium, so a quick‑in‑and‑out grab won’t be a long‑term plan.
China: A Waiting Game
Another big media event arrives tomorrow as China’s housing ministry, finance, and central bank gear up for a press conference. The market’s expecting the same old “we’ll stay tuned” teaser and probably nothing too fresh. Equity risks in China are still hanging out where the green is scarce.
Policy Pos: The Bank of Canada in the Spotlight
- Inflation data came in low—just 1.6% YoY for September—so the Bank of Canada has a clear signal: a 50‑bp cut next week is the likely path.
- That drop is essential because the loney didn’t get love back after the CPI update, and the CAD is in a rough 10‑day streak against the U.S.
- Meanwhile, interest rates in the U.S. and Europe keep putting extra stress on the market’s optimism.
UK Inflation: A Quiet Game Changer
Today’s big data point is the UK CPI for September. If inflation drops below that 2% target, the Bank of England will still keep an eye on “persistent” figures. Core and services inflation is expected to slip to 3.4% and 5.2%, respectively—base‑effect time.
What’s Near‑Term?
- ECB President Lagarde will speak tonight, but her remarks will likely be more light‑hearted because the next rate decision is tomorrow.
- Bank earnings season is wrapping up; Morgan Stanley is coming out of the gates hoping to beat the curve after earlier winners.
Bottom line: Even though the market popped up the last few days, it’s a small dip—and buying at that point is only for the brave. Look to the banks’ earnings as they might give us a boost. And keep an eye on policy moves: the change in rates could push the market higher again.
