Friday Market Quick‑Bite
Yesterday the ECB slid the deposit rate down by a quarter‑point as the plan said it would. Stocks gave a solid lift, and the gold price blasted past its all‑time high, making the metal look like the hottest thing on the planet. Today’s calm agenda keeps the market trading weekend‑ready.
What Happened?
ECB Cuts Again – The eurozone’s bigwigs turned the rate down from 3.75 % to 3.50 %, a low that won’t be seen again until next summer. Lagarde stuck to her usual “whatever the data says” mantra, promising no rigid plans.
EUR/USD Holding – Even with the OIS curve still looking sharp, the market now thinks a gradual easing is the way forward. A dip toward 1.10 in the euro spot is being tested again, but the currency is staying put.
Gold—The Shiny Star – Spot rose above $2,550 per ounce, riding a wave of demand that seems more sentiment‑driven than fundamentals. The silver‑like nature of gold’s rally shows how some traders celebrate pure momentum.
Equities and Bonds – Stocks kept their upbeat vibe, with small caps taking the winner’s cup. Bonds were fairly weak, especially the 5‑ and 10‑year yields which slipped a bit after a lackluster 30‑year auction.
Crude Oil – WTI hit a boost off the $65 per barrel level, becoming the first commodity to win two straight days this month. Lessons? The demand outlook stays thin, so the rally could quickly reverse.
Looking Ahead
Today’s a lazy one, but guesses are firm:
- US Michigan Survey – Expect a gentler rise in consumer optimism (to 68.4) and a dip in one‑year inflation expectations (down to 2.7 %), a low that’ll bring a chill to the market.
- Eurozone – July industrial output is coming in soon, though it’s not expected to stir the pot. Lagarde’s press conference again will likely be another “meh” event.
Bottom Line
With a quiet Thursday and a quick flicker in gold, the market’s holding its breath for next week’s Fed decision. If the Fed moves like a lung‑free spring, investors keep eyeing higher risk assets, all while watching for any “Fed‑put” protection. Stay tuned for a week that could see the market either pull up or trickle down.
— Get real‑time updates on this story by subscribing—
