Debate Dust & Market Buzz
Now that the dust has settled on the last presidential showdown, it’s crystal clear the economy was betting the debate would land on Kamala Harris.
Did Harris Make a Good Impression?
- About 28 % of voters wanted more insight into Harris, and the debate gave them a pretty solid demo of her ability to stand toe‑to‑toe with Trump.
- Sure, she started off a bit shaky, but she never let Trump’s strategy bloom like a springtime weed.
The event rarely scratched the surface of policy minutiae – who’d have a better deal? The real test was how the undecided folks felt about the presidential candidate’s look, sound, and leadership vibe. I’m staying neutral on that visual verdict, but the markets have nudged Harris’s odds up by 2‑3 percentage points, hinting she’s a touch more popular than before.
Star Power Does the Job
Tommy’s yell of “Taylor Swift endorses Harris!” didn’t hurt her chances. In fact, the pop star’s cheer may have nudged a tidy $45 million into the Harris coffers on that same day – the third-biggest single-day haul in the whole election cycle.
Polling & the Battleground Mat
The next mood swing will come from the next wave of polling – especially the top 6 or 7 swing states. Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, remains the queen of the arena. If the numbers don’t align with Harris’s target, the Treasury will likely survive the “Trump trade” lull.
And don’t forget: if Harris wins, the less palatable tax hikes might miss the Senate’s green light – Republicans could keep the Senate door shut. That would make hard‑court policies a beast of a challenge. Harris isn’t camped on fiscal austerity, and Democrats have a record of even higher deficits than Trump’s pre‑COVID era.
History Prediction Time
Back in 2016 and 2020, both Clinton and Biden pulled away from the national polls; we’re watching to see if a similar shift emerges now. Market gurus know better than anyone that the real story is how voters twist into the Electoral College rigamarole.
Future Debates & Trailing Tactics
As both campaigns hit the road, the question remains: will there be a second debate? The Harris camp would probably be content after the first showdown and might hesitate to go toe‑to‑toe again. At the same time, the VP debate between Walz and Vance on October 1 looks more like a show‑stopper than a market mover, but the candor on both sides promises some entertaining viewing.
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