Oil’s Roller‑Coaster: Prices Dip After a 3‑Day Rise
WTI is hovering around $76.47, while Brent sits near $79.99 on European trading Tuesday. After a quick three‑day climb, the market has started to take some profit, pulling back close to the $77.60 technical checkpoint.
Why the Surge? A Quick Peek
- Political shuffle in Libya – a tussle between Benghazi’s cabinet and Tripoli’s official government over the next central bank head has suddenly knocked out some light‑sweet crude.
- That type of oil is hugely popular for gasoline and kerosene, so any hiccup can do a shape‑shifting to the market.
- But the price rally was really a technical trickle, not a supply crunch.
Other Market Musings
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) dipped after a one‑day bounce, as traders eye big interest rate slides from the Fed.
- Yet, if the US releases stronger economic data, the speculation for rate cuts could melt away.
- In China, rising electric‑vehicle sales are straining refinery demand; industrial and construction sectors are cooling down.
Wall Street Predictions
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lowered their 2025 Brent forecast to $77.00, foreshadowing a potential OPEC supply reversal.
- Saudi Arabia’s June export sales slumped to a three‑year low of $17.7 billion, which may delay OPEC’s push to keep prices elevated.
Weekly Inventory Update (API)
For the week ending August 23, the US will see a slight dip of 3 million barrels, which could buoy prices in the short run.
US Production Snapshot
- Even though drilling has slowed, overall output remains at a record 13.4 million barrels per day.
- Oil firms are pulling more gushes from each well, boosting profits but still hesitating to up investments.
Technical Breakdown
Oil recently touched the key intersection at $77.60. From there to $79.00 several resistance levels may cap any upward momentum. The combination of simple moving averages (SMA) and the downtrend line seem poised to hold the ball game.
Looking sideways:
- Support at $71.17 (the low from August 5) could anchor a dip.
- Below $70.00, the next stop is $68.00, followed by $67.11, the lowest point after a triple bottom in June 2023.
With both Goldman and Morgan bearish forecasts, this might signal the end of the recent rally. But if bulls break $77.65, the 100‑day SMA at $78.45 could spark a bounce.
Bottom Line
Oil’s journey is a mix of political drama, market psychology, and economic forecasts. While production stays historic, supply hiccups and sentiment swings still keep prices teetering. Keep an eye on the key support and resistance—and maybe a few jokes—to navigate this volatile fuel field.
Crude Oil (WTI) – Price Playground
Short‑Term Tilt vs Long‑Term Stash
Picture the market as a roller‑coaster that’s been looping for years. The last big climb hit just over $77, and the surge has lost some of its thunder. That spot is now the elbow‑jerk resistance, where bulls and bears are really gunning for the $77.60–$78.20 sweet spot. It’s lined up with the 200‑day and 50‑day moving averages, plus the 200‑week and 50‑week lines hovering around $77.90 and $78.60.
Think of the old support that held steady for many years: it’s been turned upside‑down and is now a stubborn wall that oil must break through. If the pressures keep piling up, the next big cushion will be around the $70–$71 mark, the dip we saw near the end of 2022. If that fails, the next safety net lies at $64 — a turning point that’s decided the future a handful of times in the last seven years.
Quick Reference
- Support Levels: $76.10 → $75.50 → $74.50
- Resistance Levels: $77.40 → $78.00 → $79.20
Keep an Eye on the Action
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