Gold’s Choppy Dance in July’s Market Turbulence
A quick recap: July’s US CPI, retail sales, and jobless claims all came out, but they didn’t give gold a clear direction. Prices are just hanging out around $2,430, still doing a back‑and‑forth loop.
What’s the deal?
- Gold’s stuck between $2,430 and $2,350. That upper band is a tiny safety net.
- Fear of a US recession has eased—so fundamentals are back in the spotlight.
- Inflation numbers are cooling, but they’re not a full–blown signal to cut rates dramatically.
Inflation & Rate Expectations
Both the US PPI and CPI have slipped, and core CPI’s annualized three‑month rate fell from 2.1% to 1.6%, hitting the Fed’s 2% target. That just re‑affirms the idea of a September rate cut, not a 50‑basis‑point plunge.
Meanwhile, July retail sales surprised us positively and jobless claims dropped—evidence of a resilient economy, not the wind‑back of rate cuts.
Consensus on September
Everyone still backs a 25‑basis‑point cut in September, and last week’s wobble has settled. Gold’s already priced this in, so even the newest data haven’t shaken its value.
Bullish Drivers and Missing Catalysts
The bullish narrative is built on:
- Fed rate cuts in the near future.
- Geopolitical jitters from the US election.
- Mid‑East tensions on the rise.
But there’s no big spark yet. Inflation’s cooling, so the market’s eye is now on the labor front.
What could stir the pot before September?
Two potential surprises:
- A sudden dip in U.S. labor conditions.
- Gold buying by the PBOC (unlikely at this price and strong RMB).
Honestly, the biggest risk is the Non‑Farm Payroll on September 6th. If jobs grow under 100k and unemployment exceeds 4.1%, recessions fears could snap like a covered‑bridge, pushing gold up to $2,500.
Stay tuned for the live updates—dodgy data or a bullish swipe, it’s all part of the gold rollercoaster.
