Gold’s Tight Tussle: Will It Take a Dip or Hit the $2,500 Zone?
Why the Range Looks Like a Loose Net
Gold’s projected price swings of $2,440 to $2,350 might sound like a wide net, but if you look at the last four weeks, those swings are a bit tighter than usual.
Recent Rally, Pullback, and a Possible Comeback
- Mid‑July saw a brief rally that fizzled out.
- Gold dipped below $2,400 afterward.
- We’re now staring at a sideways move that began in mid‑April.
Fundamental Take‑aways
Short‑term trading remains lively, but on the long view the metal’s holding flat on higher‑time‑frame charts.
Fed Tides & Gold’s Waterlevel
US interest‑rate swaps reflect strong expectations that the September FOMC will cut rates by 25bps.
- A weak non‑farm payroll could push the market to price a 50bps cut—though that’s a last‑resort move.
- Nearly eight 25‑bp cuts are priced over the next two years; it’s a “soft‑landing‑vs‑recession” speed limit.
What Could Flip That Gear?
More severe recession signals (e.g., weak US data) might push those cuts up to ten in two years, nudging gold back toward $2,500.
If the labor market looks strong and the market over‑reacts, 2‑yr Treasury yields could surge; gold might cross the 50‑day moving average at $2,359 and slide to $2,300 early next week—a level buyers haven’t minded in June.
Political Pulse & Gold’s Bridge
With Kamala Harris kicking off her agenda, the Democratic march feels like a return stampede. Buying gold now could be a hedge against potential Trump‑like economic fallout, protectionist surprises, and the mounting deficit.
