Oil Eyes Two-Month Peak as Lebanon War Looms

Crude Oil Keeps Climbing — Why the Middle East Drama Matters

Oil prices are rolling up for a third consecutive day, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ticking up 0.6% and Brent 0.4%. The momentum isn’t just a random market glitch; it’s the nervous energy of investors fearing that the Middle East could spark a larger war before the US and China see any bright spot in their economies.

Why the Tension Matters

South Lebanon flashpoint: Intelligence leaks hint that battle lines could flare up there in just a few weeks.
Echo effects: A flare at South Lebanon could ignite conflict in Iraq, Syria or even open supply bottlenecks in the Red Sea.
Iran’s next move: If the situation heats up, Tehran might jump into the fray, turning a one‑front skirmish into a regional brawl.
Russian angle: Facing U.S. missile strikes on its hard core, Moscow is ready to back the region’s rebels more aggressively.

Gaza’s Dead‑End Negotiations

Talks in Gaza hit a wall. Even the U.S. administration keeps saying, “We’re waiting, but… you’re stubborn.” Israelis, meanwhile, stay glued to a war drive for domestic politics, making a compromise as elusive as a mirage.

What the Numbers Say About the Economy

Across the board, the big economies offered little pep talk:

The U.S. stockpiled more crude than expected.
Home‑sales data slid down, knocking confidence a notch.
Had the dollar steadied, oil might have leapt higher still.

Right now, the Dollar Index hangs in a crucial resistance band (106‑107). If it fails to break through, the currency could wobble, giving oil another nudge upward.