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Dollar’s Roller‑Coaster Ride: Strength & Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar steadied after a record‑breaking burst last week.
The surge was fueled by rising Middle East tensions and the stubborn expectation that U.S. interest rates will stay sky‑high.
So, the greenback felt a little power‑lift, but the real drama is still unfolding.
Fed Cut‑Forecasts Got a Realignment
- Fed Cuts Forecast: Traders have pushed the first rate cut to September after a hotter‑than‑expected consumer price report.
- Middle East Biz: While geopolitical jitters could whirl the dollar in either direction, the hesitant forecast for rate cuts is still a hefty force in the market.
Retail Sales Data: The Next Twist?
Today’s U.S. retail sales data could stir the pot again.
February’s sales climbed 0.6% month‑over‑month—still below what the markets guessed—and came after a decent dip in January.
If this downward trend continues, the greenback might have to tighten its belt, limiting any further upside momentum.
Yen’s Struggle & The Threat of Intervention
The yen is hitting an all‑time low (34‑year low vs. the dollar), and that’s not great for the Japanese currency.
Despite the usual “safe‑haven” rally that often lifts the yen, it has been shoved to the sidelines by gold and the dollar in what traders call risk‑averse trading.
[Get real‑time updates on this post category] But more pressing: the yen’s weakness has sparked chatter about a possible intervention from the Japanese government—especially after officials have repeatedly warned that the currency might need a boost.
Later this week, after Japan’s inflation report comes out on Friday—if the figures dip further—the yen could face additional selling pressure.
