The Dollar Index is on a Wild Ride
US inflation, jobs, and growth numbers have been pushing the DXY up nearly 3% this year. But the bell’s about to ring for a change.
What Saqib Iqbal’s Got to Say
According to Saqib Iqbal, analyst at Trading.Biz, the bubble is about to burst. He expects the DXY to drop by more than 2% after next week’s NFP (non‑farm payrolls) report. That would mean the dollar could slide towards the 101 mark.
Why the Shift is Occurring
- ADP Report: Private‑sector jobs grew by 140k in February, down from the anticipated 150k.
- Fed’s Speeches: Powell’s testimony hints at a future rate cut, but inflation’s still flirting with 2% and economic stats are in the green.
- Next Week’s NFP: If it comes in at the forecasted 200k, the market will likely shift into short‑selling mode for the dollar.
Chart Talk
On the daily chart, the DXY has been flirting with top levels around 105.00—its first resistance zone. Going higher could push it to 106, the peak seen in November. On the downside, the 200‑day moving average sits at 102.77. A deeper dive could see the index touch the low of 100.61 from December—a dip of about 2.5%.
Key Take‑aways for Investors
- The dollar’s strength has been bolstered by robust US data, but a shift is looming.
- If the upcoming NFP aligns with forecasts, expect a sharp pullback in the DXY.
- Watch the 101‑level corridor—it could be the tipping point for the next move.
Bottom line: the market’s eyes are on next week’s job numbers. If they perform as predicted, the dollar could find itself on a downward slide, giving traders a golden chance to bet against it.
