January & February: The Quiet Season of the Stock Market
When the calendar rolls into the first two months of the year, the big players usually take a leisurely stroll rather than a sprint. Over the past two decades, putting money into the S&P 500 during January and February has only netted a modest 0.1 % annual return. In other words, the market keeps its color and never quite bursts into glorious, golden hues.
Yet, as they say, “some yachts do sail”—there are a few stocks that have historically outplayed the crowd.
In the past 16+ years, a trio of tough nuts have consistently outdone the median stocks. They’ve achieved:
- More than 5 % average gains during January & February
- Chart‑tinged upward moves in over 80 % of tries
- A profit potential that, when paired with the right windows, turns “flat” into “fact”
Meet the Three “January & February Superstars”
These are the only three that have etched a track record worthy of bragging in the trades section. Each comes with a sweet spot for when to jump in:
- Stock A (aka “First‑Mover”) – Ideal Window: Late January to early February
- Stock B (aka “Momentum Magnet”) – Ideal Window: Mid‑February
- Stock C (aka “Blue‑Chip Bounce”) – Ideal Window: End of February
What Data Underscores These Picks
Studying the history laid out by Trading.biz analyst Cory Mitchell, here’s the gist:
| Stock | Avg. Jan‑Feb Gain | Up‑Move % of Time | Ideal Trade Window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock A | >5 % | >80 % | Late Jan – Early Feb |
| Stock B | >5 % | >80 % | Mid‑Feb |
| Stock C | >5 % | >80 % | End‑Feb |
Bottom Line
While the bulk of the market remains calmly stagnant in the frosty months, watch out for these three winners. They’re the “early birds” that get the juicy deals when most investors are merely watching the sunrise.
MSCI Inc. (MSCI): +5.33%
MSCI Trade Revealed: What the Numbers Say
From the wind‑up of the trading window on January 20 to the curtain‑call on February 19, the MSCI index sees a well‑tied stretch of about a month and a half.
Over the last sixteen years, the period has averaged a 5.33% gain – not the sort of leap that knocks you into a hammock, but steady enough to keep most investors smiling.
- 13 out of 16 years ended higher – that’s 81 % of the time.
Still, every January–February isn’t a guaranteed “spectrum of sunshine.” Here’s the range:
- Highest surge: 19.63 % in 2020.
- Biggest dip: ‑9.60 % in 2010.
So, while the trend leans toward growth, keep a spare eye open for the occasional downslide.
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM): +6.88%
What Happens When You Play the WPM Trade Game?
A Quick Look at the Numbers
Why All This Matters
It’s not just about the numbers—the dates are a secret window that traders use to plan moves. Think of the January‑to‑February span like a winter sprint: starting strong, going steady, and finishing with a finish line that, more often than not, is a winner’s trophy rather than a loser’s sigh.
Takeaway
If you’re a trader or a curious observer, keep an eye on that January 22 – February 12 window.
Happy trading—just remember, timing is everything, and sometimes a little humor can make the ride a lot smoother!
Ulta beauty Inc. (ULTA): +8.2%
The ULTA Trade: A Roller‑Coaster from January to March
Picture this: you’ve got a trade that starts at the January 20 opening and runs all the way through to the March 26 close. No, it’s not a quick sprint—it’s a marathon that stretches across the better part of the first half of the year. That’s why it feels like a long‑term ride compared to the more sprint‑style trades we usually hear about.
How Has It Been Doing—A Look Back Over 16 Years?
- Average return: 8.2% per year over the last 16 years.
- Consistent winners: In 13 of those 16 years (a solid 81%), the price finished higher than where it began.
- Biggest win: A whopping 35.54% gain in 2011.
- Biggest loss: A sharp 30.8% drop in 2020.
And What About the Past Two Years?
If you want the latest snapshot, the chart (you can’t actually see it here, but imagine it as a bar graph or line chart) shows how the three stocks have behaved during the recent two‑year window. Think of it as a quick snapshot that helps you gauge whether the trend is still running high or dipping low.
Quick Takeaway
- Longer‑term trade, but still solid returns.
- Mostly positive outcomes—13/16 seasons finished up.
- High, high, high wins (and a few severe dips). Keep that in mind when you’re planning your next move.
Seasonality and trading
Seasonality: The Weather Forecast of Wall Street
What’s on the Calendar?
Seasonality is the art of checking how the market vibes during different parts of the year. Think of it as the financial version of a sunny‑summer versus a snowy‑winter mood board.
History – The Reference Manual
By digging into past data, traders spot patterns that hint at when certain stocks or sectors might pop, dip, or stay stubbornly flat. It’s like studying yesterday’s GPS routes to guess tomorrow’s road conditions.
Why the “Maybe” Warning
Just because a trend existed last year doesn’t mean it’ll be a party starter again. Financial markets are mood‑switched, so those patterns can wobble or even flip entirely.
Mix It Up for a Stronger Playbook
- Combine Seasonality with Technical Analysis: The daily chart can confirm if the seasonal “hot seat” is still hot.
- Overlap with Fundamental Checks: Earnings, macro news, and company health keep the strategy grounded.
- Set Stop‑Losses: To dodge unexpected weather fronts.
Quick Reminder
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