Bitcoin’s Up‑Down Rollercoaster on Monday
Bitcoin opened the day dipping 0.8%—a tiny wobble—before giving itself a polite up‑turn to sit comfortably at roughly $44,025.
U.S. Labor Market: A Confusing Bash
- Unemployment came in at 3.7%.
- Hourly wages jumped sharply by 4.1% this year, outpacing the expected 3.9%.
- Great news? The data sent a nudge that the Federal Reserve might hold off on chopping rates early this year.
Rate‑Cut Countdown: From Seven to Five
Before the payroll reports, traders were lining up for roughly six or seven 25‑basis‑point rate cuts. Now they’re pricing in about five cuts. Markets are feeling the squeeze, especially in crypto and equities.
10‑Year Treasury Yield: The Signal
The benchmark yield has climbed 15 basis points to 4.05% since Friday, hinting that the Fed may hold its nose a bit longer. Over the last three months of 2023, the yield dipped around 80 basis points to 3.86%, giving risk‑seeking assets like Bitcoin an initial boost.
Wage‑Inflation Relationship: The Fed’s Dilemma
When wages rise faster than prices, the Fed must decide whether to tighten or loosen. This year’s wage rise of 4.1% throws a spanner in the works, potentially keeping policy on the cautious side.
Crypto’s Short‑Term Shield
Even with rising yields, some analysts still think that an instant exchange‑traded fund (ETF) could safeguard Bitcoin from a short‑term slide. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve one or more spot ETFs by January 10, a timing that’s already baked into crypto pricing.
Potential Profit‑Taking Post‑Approval
When the SEC finally clears the spot Bitcoin ETFs, traders who warmed up on the hype might look to lock in gains, causing a brief dip that would surprise on‑lookers who expected a jump.
Spot BTC ETF Awaiting Their Moment
Nearly a dozen investors have set their sights on the January decision, having already built capital and marketed their spot BTC products. The clock’s ticking, and the crypto world holds its breath for the SEC’s verdict.
