December: The Good, The Bad, & The Tech‑Tangled Twist
What the Numbers Say
Let’s cut straight to the chase and look at the three major players:
- S&P 500 – Over the last 20 years, 70 % of the Decembers ended up higher, with an average lift of about 1 %. In the last decade the trend slowed a touch – 60 % of the time nudging up but humming along at just 0.1 % average gain.
- NYSE Composite – The big, diversified index‑jamboree follows a similar pattern: 70 % of Decembers ran up, averaging a 1.3 % bump over 20 years. The last ten years were less impressive – 60 % up, again just a modest 0.1 % average rise.
- Nasdaq 100 – Tech‑heavy folks keep the coin‑y‑akin scoreboard a bit scratchy. Across 20 years, the index’s December climbs were not‑so‑hot: 55 % did better with an average gain of 0.3 %. But in the last decade, the story flipped—60 % up yet losing 0.7 % on average.
Seasonality: The Calendar’s Whisper
Economists call this the “seasonality” trick—where a month’s mood subtly nudges stocks. A quick glance at the SPY ETF over 2003‑2022 shows that most Decembers give the 200‑plus‑plus investee a lift in the 70‑plus‑percent range. But remember, past behaviour isn’t a crystal‑ball for the future.
What Might Happen This December?
Historically the market’s mood has trended upward after a late‑October surge. According to Cory Mitchell, an analyst who’s been chewing on the charts for a while, the optimism that followed the “pullback” of the prior months looks like it’s back on track. Yet the tech crowd stays a bit on edge.
Risk Management 101 (Because Nobody Likes a Plate of Sorrow)
Even with a compliant histogram and a hopeful outlook, the market can flip a script—indices can dip and a couple of stocks may do the kill‑joy dance. Here’s how you stay protected:
- Stop‑loss orders – A safety net that cuts your loss if the market moves against you.
- Position sizing – Balance how much you buy against the capital you actually have.
Bottom line: seasonality doesn’t guarantee a bump; it’s more like a history lesson. Keep your fortitude tight, your stop‑losses sensible, and your positions proportionate.
Catch the Flicker of this December
Whether your grin has swelled from a 1 % S&P lift or your eyebrows are raising due to the Nasdaq’s chill, be sure to keep an eye on the waves. The wall of December holds a mixture of history, prophecy, and the ordinary possibility that anything could happen.
