Analysts Warn: Putin Unlikely to End War

Russian Moves That 200‑Year‑Old as an Obvious Plan But the West Isn’t Ready to Drop the Mic

What the Think‑Tank Tells Us

ISW analysts are sounding the alarm to President Trump: Vladimir Putin isn’t looking for a peace treaty. He’s got bigger dreams—obviously trying to claim the whole of Ukraine. That’s the headline.

“Putin’s been toy‑pushing his way into a peace feast with President Zelenskyy but, as far as the experts see, he’s just trying to rile the West into giving him a piece of the pie,” the ISW says.

Who is the Russian target?

Four “key” oblasts: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson – these are the front‑line pieces Russia has already captured.
Beyond – the rest of Ukraine: The analysts warn it would take decades for Putin to get a grip on the entire country, so for now it’s a “win‑in‑the‑short‑term” game.

How the Kremlin’s Game Plan Plays Out

Speech & Deception: Putin keeps throwing out peace talk offers while sidestepping actually meeting Zelensky. That way the Kremlin can spin the narrative that it’s “friendly” but in reality, it’s just shooting over a U.S. line.
Obfuscation of Intent: The analysts add that, in order to keep the West guessing, the Russian leader frames the occupation of the four oblasts as inevitable, hoping Ukraine and its allies will bend, or at least prepare to negotiate with limits.
Blockade & Obstacles: The “invasion” of the four oblasts isn’t set and not for the taking anymore. Practically, Russian forces are likely to face “operational obstacles” over a multi‑year effort. It’s not as simple as it seems.

Putin’s Vision – A World That Could Never Be

Even after the “flashy” claims of “all of Ukraine” being Russian, the big picture is still how to destroy the Ukrainian state, dissolve its culture, and enslave its people. ISW experts point out that the Kremlin is deliberately referencing places like Sumy, Odesa, and Kharkiv as “Russian” to fuel a narrative that your homeland can’t slip off from the Russian empire again.

The Action Plan That Might Break the Loop

Economic Pressure: Tightening sanctions and staying hard on the economy as a deterrent.
West’s Military Support: Keeping Ukraine armed so the front line can keep chipping at the Russian forces.
Requiring Compromise: With the Western weaponry and economic pressure making Russia’s very idea of success suspect, it might finally be forced to drop the mic and come to the negotiating table.

The ultimate message? Putin’s got time on his side and believes the West won’t keep pace. Only through sustained pressure and helping Ukraine keep the fight alive can the balance tip enough for a real deal to be on the table.