The Bank of England’s Big Pause: 4.25% All The Same
Why the Hold‑n‑Hope is Unfolding
In a twist that makes you almost want to cheer, the MPC is leaning toward keeping the key rate steady at 4.25% this Thursday. It’s not the shock move the headlines teased, but it’s a calculated stop‑gap as economy‑talk takes a spin.
Inflation’s Latest Flash‑back
- April tipped inflation up to a level not seen in over a year—so the timer’s ticking again.
- Previously, rate cuts had been a regular feature because the price spiral was easing.
- Now, with prices spiking, the Bank’s cautious like a surfer waiting for the next wave.
What the Economists Are Saying
Investec’s Ellie Henderson thinks policy sits in a friendly spot, ready to “legs” whatever the global drama brings. “We’ve got to stay nimble,” she jokes, “because trying to predict everything is like ‘guessing the next meme on Twitter’—we’re out of luck.”
Meanwhile, Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan‑Doak from Pantheon Macroeconomics added that a sparser jobs market might give the MPC a green light for future cuts. “Sprints are short,” they say, “so we’ll only use the foot‑step approach we comfortably know.”
Bottom Line
While the “June decision” seems lock‑in at 4.25%, the real fun lies in how the MPC reacts to the evolving cash‑flow vibes. It’s a game of finger‑pointing and slight adjustments—no time for gun‑decision fireworks.
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