ASML Hits the Bullseye: A Quick Take on the Q4 Results
On January 24, the Dutch powerhouse that builds the machines the world’s chips run on (yes, the same thing that fuels your smartphone, laptop, and smart toaster) delivered a headline‑making earnings story. Their EPS ticked up to $5.64 against the crowd’s most common expectation of $5.16, while revenue hit $7.8 bn versus an expected $7.4 bn. That’s a sweet win.
What The Numbers Really Mean
- Revenue guidance for the current quarter: $5.7 bn (top Traders had $6.8 bn in mind).
- Stock reaction – Immediate 8.85% rise in the morning, with an intraday high of 11%.
- In 2024, ASML fears only a slight uptick in EPS, whereas the CEO predicts a “significant growth” for 2025.
- Industry estimates forecast an average 23.6% per year EPS growth over the next five years – practically matching ASML’s own five‑year streak of 26%.
Historical Performance Snapshot
Across the last ten years, ASML’s annualized return sat around 26.6% – a solid performance when you consider the S&P 500’s 12.3% average. While the dividend yield is a modest 0.7%, the payouts have been rising roughly 22% each year for the past decade. Combine that with a 0.4% buyback yield, and shareholders enjoy a total yearly yield of about 1.1%.
Bottom Line: A Strong Player in a Tight Market
ASML keeps proving why it’s a staple in the semiconductor supply chain: solid quarterly beats, a market that hunkers down for a quiet year, yet big eyes on next year’s growth. If you’re watching the chip world, this company’s momentum is the kind that keeps investors planning for another decade of upside.
ASML technical outlook
All Eyes on the Good Stuff: Why Now Is a Golden Moment
Guess what? The market’s vibe is bright—those EPS numbers keep climbing, especially after the “flat” year in 2024. Our friend the stock is on a speedy streak, bouncing back after that massive drop in 2021‑22.
The Rollercoaster Story
- Since 2009 there’s been a 32‑40% slide before hitting new highs again.
- 2021‑22’s dip was nothing short of a 59% plunge.
- Today’s price? $847.31, just a hop away from the $877.32 peak.
In the past year (late 2023 onward), the shares have surged about 50%—talk about a debt‑wrapping ride!
How the Analyst Does It
Meet Cory Mitchell from Trading.biz. He’s on the lookout for small dips after a good earnings jump. His mantra:
“After a big earnings bump, wait for a little pullback or sideways drifts. Once the price starts pulling up again, I go long—dropping a stop loss just below that most recent low.”
This strategy makes the most out of high‑mood phases and the classic “earnings drift” effect—prices that climb week after week following a positive report.
Tactical Tips
- Consider a trailing stop (10‑ or 20‑day moving average) to protect gains.
- Check whether a fresh set‑up is brewing now. The trend’s up, but as always, every trade winds with risk.
The Long‑Term View
Despite all the ups and downs, the stock’s long‑term story is sweet: it rebounds well when it tops past highs. Keep the eyes peeled, and let the momentum do the heavy lifting.
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