Yo, Treasuries Are the New Stars of the Market Stage
It’s a big launch of the trading week: U.S. Treasury bonds are on fire, the dollar is a bit shy, gold gets the “go away” notice for the year’s worst day in four years, and the equity crowds are still in the middle of a roller‑coaster ride.
What’s the Buzz This Monday?
- Doilies? – The 10‑ and 30‑year yields plummeted more than a decade of points. Shorter ones? They’re already pretty comfy.
- Trump’s Pick? – The hot‑new Treasury Secretary candidate, Scott Bessent, has the nod from the new administration and critics are thrilled that he’s no favourite dish of “echo chamber” types. He`s a finance veteran, having steered murky waters at George Soros’s funds in the past.
- “3‑3‑3” Party? – The man in the limelight is championing 3% GDP growth, 3% deficit (as a percent of GDP), and 3 million barrels per day more U.S. crude. The crowd loves it in theory, but actually sliding the deficit in half or pumping up shale output will be a hard-as‑hewn screw.
Bruh, the Dollar Should Keep It Together
Last Tuesday, the greenback has rolled back a few points, but there’s still a strong “U.S. exceptionalism” vibe. Trump’s new tariff plans (25% on Mexican and Canadian goods and 10% on China imports) are popping pop‑corn demand for the dollar, so keep an eye on the E.U. and British pound paths; they’re already flirting above the 1.05 territory.
Gold’s Big Drop and the Crude Coffee Break
Gold’s down about 3% – the biggest single‑day loss since last November 2020 – meaning wherever the dust settles, those on the “gold” side of the trade might slightly reevaluate their moves. And crude is following suit, both Brent and WTI sliding three percent.
Stocks: A Pretty Mixed‑Signal Dance
The S&P and Nasdaq were blue‑eyed by the close, but let’s keep it real – they didn’t hit the intraday high. Still, the market’s still in a positive lane. And with a short Thanksgiving week looming, there’s a chance for more light‑hearted rally vibes.
What’s Next? The Marching Band of Data
- Consumer Confidence Chart‑Topper – The Conference Board will show an optimism lift from 108.7 to 112.0, likely boosted by the election. Bring that spark for holiday shopping!
- New Home Sales – Check the latest houses. It’ll help us see how strong the economy keeps its footing.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Pulse – A month‑by‑month snapshot of manufacturing trends.
- FOMC minutes – Printed later, but those are quiet by nature, as we’ve scratched out most of the “prose” before.
- Federal Supply – The $70 billion 5‑year Treasury auction is on, following that big 2‑year sale yesterday. Investors are filing in with a low demand (1.8bp), but the indirect interest level hits a high of 71.6% — the best since July.
Stay in the Loop
Trade trucks are rolling, and the real‑time edge is as bright as the early‑summer solstice. Keep tuned, keep riding, and let’s see if the market swings into the pine‑cone‑golden weekend.
