Britain’s Cargo to the U.S. Takes a Tumbling Dive for the First Time in Three Years
UK exporters, grab yo’ coffee – the trading tide is rolling back.
Tariffs, Tallies, and a Dash of Drama
According to the Office for National Statistics, June’s exports of British goods to the United States slid to a quiet £3.9 billion, a drop of £0.7 billion from May.
This is a roughly 20% fall from the monthly average of £4.9 billion – the lowest level in over three years.
What’s Missing from the Truck?
- Transport Equipment – Vehicles and machinery took the biggest hit, falling by £0.2 billion.
- All Commodities – Every category feels the squeeze, thanks to the U.S.’s tariff onslaught.
Expert Take‑away: William Bain on the Impact
“The tariffs are knocking the wind out of businesses shipping across the Atlantic,” says William Bain, head of the UK Chambers of Commerce’s trade policy team. In the second quarter of 2025, overall goods exports were down 13.5% year‑over‑year.
But it’s not all bad. Services exports showed a strong rebound. The trade picture is a classic case of “Jekyll and Hyde” – non‑EU goods are struggling, while EU exports (almost half of the UK’s total goods exports) have climbed.
Why the U.S. Tariffs Make a Difference
These are the first full quarter of a reciprocal U.S. tariff regime, adding an extra 10% load on many UK sectors from food to chemicals. The cost hike has become painfully clear, pushing U.S. goods exports to their lowest in three years.
What Now? 100% Implementation, 200% Action
- Finalise the UK‑U.S. trade deal – especially for steel and aluminium, which could see a jump in demand.
- Open a platform to negotiate tariff reforms with the U.S., focusing on sectors where the British market is the star of the show.
- Push ministers to actively roll out the Trade Strategy areas that can turbo‑boost goods export sales while keeping services trade on a steady upward track.
In short, we’re at a crossroads. A “full‑on” implementation could give UK exporters the lift they need to turn the tide – or we risk the cargo staying in the doldrums. Stay tuned for the next chapter in this trade saga.
Goods exports
June 2025: The UK’s Export Tango
In June, the UK’s goods exports took a nice little dip – a 6.1 % drop in volume compared with May. What’s behind the slide? Let’s break it down.
Where the Goods Are Going
- Exports to the EU fell by 2.1 %.
- Non‑EU trade partners saw a steeper decline of 10.2 %.
Quarterly Goals (Q2) – The Big Picture
Looking at the whole second quarter of 2025, the UK’s goods exports in value terms slipped by 3.7 %. However, the story is more nuanced:
- EU exports actually rose by 3.6 %, showing a slight recovery.
- Conversely, the rest of the world’s share dropped by 9.9 %.
Within Q2, the total drop was £2 billion on a non‑seasonally adjusted figure, meaning a year‑on‑year decline of about 13.5 %.
Powerhouses Still Shine
Even with the overall slump, some categories kept their sparkle. Throughout the quarter, power generators and ships exported to the EU showed strong performance, proving that a few categories can still stand out even when the rest falters.
Bottom Line
June’s numbers remind us that trade is a mixed bag: while EU markets show resilience, non‑EU ties face tougher times. Keep an eye on those high‑tech segments, and you’ll see a few bright spots that keep the UK’s export story interesting.
US tariff changes in Q2
UK’s Tariff Tango With the US: A Quick‑Guide
Picture this—early April, the UK’s trade window flicks on a new set of tariffs for most goods heading up the Atlantic. That means Q2 is the first quarter where a whole lot of British exports feel the pinch. A game‑changing shuffle that’s hard to ignore.
Key Numbers
- Steel & Aluminium: 25% duty since March. Think of it as a price tag that’s a quarter off the original value.
- Automotive (Vehicles & Parts): 10% tariff on UK-made cars and car parts. Even when your car lands in the US, a small fee stays in the cradle.
- Civil Aerospace: Zero tariffs—great news for UK civil aircraft and their components.
- Copper: 50% tariff on certain copper exports. Half the price goes straight to the US customs office.
Why It Happened
This is a classic “reciprocal” play: each side imposes similar duties on the other’s goods. Think of it as a seesaw—balanced, but a bit heavy when you tip it. For the UK, there’s benefit in sparing their aerospace sector, but the trade-off is higher duties on steel, cars, and copper.
Impact on the UK Business Scene
Manufacturers and exporters feel the hit right away—higher costs ripple down to consumers. “You’ll be paying it next generation’s wallets,” as many executives have warned. Strategies now need to adapt: some juggle new pricing, others seek cost‑cutting in supply chains.
What to Watch in Q2
Quarterly reports will now carry the imprint of these tariffs. Deal makers are “praying” for relief or exemptions, but for the moment, the numbers are solid. Keep your eyes peeled for any upcoming negotiations that could shift this landscape.
Goods imports
UK Imports: A Slight Dip in June, a Lively Q2 Push
Last month, the UK’s good‑ie imports took a light step backwards, shrinking a few knees – 3.6% overall, with the EU took the lead in the fall.
June Breakdown
- EU goods: Down 5.7%
- Rest of the World: Down 1.5%
It’s a bit like that time you went to the store, found your favourite snack on sale, but then realized you didn’t need it. Same vibe for the UK’s trade basket.
Quick Q2 Flash‑Update
- Total imports up 1.6% from the previous year.
- EU imports rose 3.1% – a solid rebound.
- Non‑EU goods stayed stubbornly flat.
Second‑quarter 2025 saw the EU hit the high‑jack with certain sectors. Chemicals and machinery/transport equipment had a strong showing, swinging the net value higher.
Why It Matters
When goods flow in, the economy feels a bit fuller. A slight dip in June may have been a result of fewer travellers, less holiday shopping, or maybe the EU’s supply chain hiccups. But the Q2 uptick suggests that, overall, the trade purse didn’t look empty.
Bottom Line
- June saw a 3.6% drop – a modest slowdown.
- EU goods were the main dimple in the decline.
- Q2 brought a healthy 1.6% increase, buoyed by EU imports and the bounce‑back in chemicals and machinery.
Services
UK Service Trade Snapshot
When it comes to services, the UK’s trade numbers had a bit of a rollercoaster. In June, exports dipped 0.2 %, but looking back over the entire quarter the picture was much brighter, with a solid 2.9 % increase. That spike came from a few hot spots:
- Professional, advisory and other business services
- Financial services
- Travel services
Imports, on the other hand, went up 1 % during June, but when you pull the average for the quarter, they actually fell a touch, by 0.2 %. The slump was felt especially in:
- Travel services
- Pensions
- Insurance imports
Why It Matters
The gains in export sectors show the UK’s services business is still going strong, particularly in finance and advisory. Meanwhile, the dip in imports could signal a shift towards more domestic consumption or a change in overseas demand.
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