UK GDP Takes a Sneeze: Economic Resilience or Slouch?
After a second consecutive icy plunge in the UK’s GDP for May, the glittering 0.7% boom of the first quarter turned out to be a brief spark, almost like a light that quickly gets snuffed out.
Quarterly Woes: Just a Face‑Rubbing Zero?
The next quarter’s growth looks like a faint blush away from zero—so close to a tumble that even GDP per head feels a bit sluggish.
Over‑blown Numbers and Under‑blown Reality
Just as the first quarter’s numbers amplified the economy’s vigor, the second quarter’s figures are likely inflating the gloom.
- Reverse of Temporary Bubbles – The early‑year growth was buoyed by short‑lived perks: rushing activities to sidestep Trump’s tariffs and the stamp duty tweak.
- New Headwinds – April’s wage hike and sky‑high energy bills blew a chill over productivity.
- Confidence Takes a Pat – Yet the latest business sentiment surveys suggest the gloom is easing, with a sliver of recovery on the horizon.
What Does This Mean?
Below‑the‑surface growth is probably in the 0.2‑0.3% range per quarter, sufficient to dodge an outright recession.
But that’s still a long way from the lofty figures needed to straighten the public finances. Drop in the Autumn Budget—any fresh shock—could cost the economy a nosedive.
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