It Looks Like the Chancellor Might Break the Rules (And That’s Not a Good Look)
The Think‑Tank’s Crystal Ball
When the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) turns up the “blow‑up” knob on its forecast, you know you’re in for a bumpy ride. They’ve just pulled the plug on their optimistic GDP growth number for 2025, trimming it from 1.5% to 1.2%. Why? Because the business world is feeling a little jittery and uncertainty is high‑stakes.
The Fiscal Buffer—A Big Lie?
- Chancellor’s promise: Keep a hefty £9.9 billion cushion by 2029.
- NIESR’s reality check: Expect a nasty £62.9 billion shortfall by 2029/2030.
The bottom line? The government may have to hike taxes or slash spending again—yes, even when they swear off it.
Hot Takes from Savvy Economists
- Benjamin Caswell, senior economist: “No headroom means the Chancellor will have to pick between tighter budgets or un‑popular tax raises.”
- Stephen Millard, interim director: “The Chancellor’s self‑imposed fiscal rules are making every budgeting cycle a gamble, stalling investment and hurting growth. We need a new playbook.”
- Adrian Pabst, deputy director of public policy: “Boosting growth across the UK means a credible, well‑planned transformation. We’ve got to invest more in second‑tier cities and poorer regions, not just London and the South East.”
Bottom‑Line Advice
- Expect tightening budgets and possibly new tax hikes.
- Invest in regional growth to get the economy moving again.
- Keep an eye on the fiscal rules crisis—it’s a real danger sign.
Stay on edge, folks: The government’s fiscal cliff is still looming, and it may not be a bluff when it comes time to raise the taxes. For inside scoops, subscribe now and get real‑time updates straight to your device.
