Small Business Confidence Sinks to 2020‑Level Lows
New data from Novuna Business Finance shows the UK’s tiniest firms are feeling less optimistic than ever, with the share of owners forecasting growth dropping to its lowest point in five years.
The Four‑Quarter Slide
- 26% of small businesses now expect growth in the next three months – down from 35% just a year earlier.
- The drop mirrors the bleak days of the 2020 lockdown era.
- Since the Labour Government took office, the “Election Bounce” in confidence has been dampening, declining every quarter.
Regional Shifts
- London – Growth outlook fell sharply from 48% to 37%.
- North East – From 42% to 29%.
- West Midlands – From 36% to 24%.
- Scotland – From 29% to 22%.
Industry Highlights
While the overall mood is gloomy, some sectors are showing a glimmer of hope.
- Manufacturing – Growth views improved from 19% to 25%.
- Construction – Step up from 19% to 24%.
- Conversely, Real Estate, Transport & Distribution continue to feel the heat.
- Seasonal fields like Agriculture, Hospitality & Leisure are biting hard, reporting steep drops.
Expert Commentary
Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna, says:
“The election buzz lifted confidence from 30% to 35% last year, but now we’re back under the 2020 peak at 26%. Uncertainty over NI hikes, tariff hopes and tax anxieties are stalling optimism. Still, these foggy times can be good for strategic long‑term play; we’re ready to help firms build resilience.”
What It Means for You
With trust eroding, more small businesses are pausing on expansion. The good news? Those who take calculated risks now can outpace the rest when the tide turns. Keep an eye on local trade chats, stay flexible, and consider bolt‑ed‑in support – because a shaky market can also hold hidden opportunities.
