Chancellor Warns: Small Business Growth Plunges to Lockdown Levels

UK Small Business Hope Slides Back to Pandemic‑Era Low

Novuna Business Finance’s fresh July 2025 survey shows that UK small businesses are once again feeling the pinch. The percentage of owners expecting growth in the next three months has fallen to a five‑year low of just 26%, the same level you’d remember from the lockdown days of 2020.

Confidence Dips in Every Quarter Since the Election Boost

After the 2024 election, confidence spiked to 35%.
Each consecutive quarter has seen that number shrink.
Now it sits at a record low of 26% for the period ending 30 September.

London’s Numbers: A Big Fall

In the capital, the heart of UK entrepreneurship, 37% of firms predict growth – down sharply from 48% just a quarter earlier.

Nationwide: Regional Declines Are Steep

North East: 29% (down from 42%)
West Midlands: 24% (down from 36%)
Scotland: 22% (down from 29%)

Sector‑by‑Sector Snapshot

Manufacturing and Construction show a modest rebound, up from 19% to 25–24%.
Real Estate, Transport and Distribution keep falling.
Seasonal fields like Agriculture, Hospitality and Leisure hit steep declines in outlook.

What’s Driving the Drop?

Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna, explains the trend: “Since the election bounce, the picture has been a steady slide. The new low of 26% reflects the same uncertainty that saddled us in 2020. Rising NI, tariff jitters and looming tax hikes are making owners wary.”

“Times of uncertainty can still be a launchpad for long‑term gains,” she adds. “We’re committed to guiding established enterprises through smart investments to reignite future growth.”