Markets Stuck in a Trade‑Tornado — A Comedy of Uncertainty
It feels a bit like waiting for a kettle to boil when you’re stuck in the trade limbo that’s been thrust upon us. Markets are on a treadmill, eyes peeled for the next Trump headline that will explode across the wires, while the rest of us sit in our shoes, hoping for a move that never comes.
Trade or No Trade, The Market Is a Standing By Ball
With no “big‑event” coming up, investors are slipping into a kind of “let’s see what happens” vibe. Think of it like a lottery where the ball never turns up the prize. The trade uncertainty hangs over us like the infamous Sword of Damocles, threatening to knock markets into syncopation.
- April 1st is the headliner – the day the “America First Trade Policy” review and reciprocal tariff assessment drop the curtain.
- It falls right inside Trump’s first 100 days – that’s a headline in itself.
- Until that date comes around, there’s no fresh signposts.
So for now the market ride is just the “path of least resistance”: equity gains, a stronger Dollar, gold rising, and Treasuries staying about the same.
What Happened Yesterday?
The Dollar traded up, stocks got a bit of a bump (S&P hits new high), and Treasuries basically idled. Nothing broke apart the silence.
Feeling bullish on the Dollar and equities, the plan is to buy on dips whenever they sneak up. It’s like snagging a bargain at the clearance sale of your favorite store.
UK Updates
- The latest jobs report was about the same as last year (4.4% unemployment), but wage growth hit a 6% YoY jump – a warning for the Bank of England that the inflation goal of 2% isn’t here yet.
- Finance Secretary Rachel Reeves found herself juggling CFOs for the UK economy. Apparently, the only real growth sector is catering — with all the pointless summits that pop up.
Across the Channel
Germany delivered a surprise – the ZEW expectations index had the best reading since last July. The boost was thanks to hopes for a rethink after Sunday’s federal elections. Time will tell how those coalitions pan out.
Looking Ahead
- UK inflation is up 2.8% YoY in January, core inflation back to ~4%, and services CPI over 5%. The Bank of England’s wait‑and‑see mood stays, while England’s economy remains stuck in a stag‑flation catch‑22.
- The US is set to deliver January housing data (starts and permits), likely to be a bit lower because of the cold snap and California wildfires.
- January FOMC minutes will also drop, giving investors something to chew on for the night.
Stay Re‑Fresh
Things are quiet today. It’s a good time to watch the market from a calm viewpoint, listen to the subtle changes, and prepare to react when an actual signal emerges. Let’s keep the eye on that April 1st deadline, because that’s the next possible spark.
