Dollar’s Chill: It’s Flat, It’s Close to a Low, And It’s Got a Lot of People Watching
On Thursday, the U.S. dollar was practically hanging out in the middle of the road. It stayed where it was, flirting with a three‑week low but ultimately keeping its balance. That’s because the trade bump‑in has eased a bit after the U.S. and Japan struck a deal that calmed a lot of nerves.
Trades in the Spotlight
- US–EU Talks: Big moves are still on the horizon. Economists are doing their best juggling act while the U.S. and the European Union go back and forth.
- China’s Role: Trade Secretary Bessent hinted that the tariff war with China might pause longer than the August 12 deadline. A breath of fresh air for traders who want some tariff relief.
- Trump’s Fed Visit: The incoming presidential visit to the Federal Reserve is causing a little “Whoa!” in the markets. The worry? Politicians messing with monetary policy – and that’s a spicy mix.
Yield Curves & Market Buzz
Across the board, Treasury yields nudged up a tad. The 10‑year benchmark swiveled to 4.40%. Investors are dialing back the hype for an imminent Fed rate cut, and the appetite for risk is picking up a bit. That’s a double‑whammy: “We’re feeling less daring, but still craving a bit of excitement.”
Meanwhile, policymakers are staying on the fence. Even though tariffs might ease, the fear that they could push inflation higher keeps everyone cautious.
What’s in the Next Round?
Keep an eye on today’s PMI releases and jobless claims. These data points could give us a fresh snapshot of the economy’s underlying momentum and hint at the Fed’s next move. If the numbers come in soft, expect the markets to spark a new sales run.
Stay tuned – the market’s script is always a page-turner and you never know when the next twist will drop in.
