Dollar’s Almost‑Double‑Weekend‑High
While the US dollar hovers near a two‑week crest, traders are holding their breath for the week’s big economic news—especially the Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers.
Why the NFP Matters
Every paycheck that slips through the system tells us whether the Federal Reserve should cut rates this September. At the moment, a 25‑basis‑point (bps) cut is on the table, but if the payroll data looks weak, the market starts betting on a hefty 50‑bps swoop.
Yields Stay Calm, But Not for Long
- 10‑year Treasury yield: ~3.90% (no big swings yet)
- Yields can jump if people change their minds about rate cuts.
What’s Up Next?
First stop: the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Analysts expect a tiny uptick in August after a sharp drop in July—Canada’s factories are feeling the heat for the first time in months.
Services Might Keep Rolling
The services side of the economy could still be in growth mode, showing there are still good legs to lean on.
The Final Show‑down Friday
On Friday we’ll get the full picture: unemployment figures and the final NFP report. A modest drop in unemployment could push both Treasury yields and the dollar higher—so keep an eye out!
