Wage Update: Earnings Growth, Inflation and Job Numbers
Ever wondered how the salaries of your 9‑to‑5 teammates are doing? Grab a cup of tea (or a coffee), and let’s dive into the latest figures that show both the good and the shaky side of the UK pay scene.
Regular vs. Total Earnings
- Regular pay (no bonuses): +6.0% year‑on‑year.
- Total pay (with bonuses): +5.7% year‑on‑year.
- In real terms (inflation‑adjusted using CPIH): +2.0% for regular pay and +1.7% for total pay.
Sector‑by‑Sector Snapshot
- Public sector earnings grew +6.3%.
- Private sector grew +5.9% – a bit higher than the roughly +5.4% it hit from April to June 2022.
- The manufacturing and finance & business services banners each tipped the scales with a strong +6.8% growth.
Employment Figures – The Good, the Bad, and the Slightly Dreadful
- Between Feb & Mar 2024 the number of people with pay rolls dropped by 5,000, an almost invisible 0.0% change.
- However, when you compare March 2024 to March 2023, there’s a rib‑cracking bump of 288,000, which is a 1.0% lift in the total workforce.
- April’s early estimate saw a tiny month‑on‑month decline of 85,000 (‑0.3%) but a yearly uptick of 129,000 (+0.4%) bringing the figure to 30.2 million payroll employees. Remember, this number is provisional and might tweak a bit as fresh data rolls in.
What the “Payroll Pro” Thinks
Melanie Pizzey, the fearless CEO of the Global Payroll Association, gave her take:
“Last month’s earnings data was surprisingly upbeat, sparking fears that it might stall a Bank of England rate cut – and, lo and behold, the Bank delivered a sixth consecutive rate hold last week.”
“While earnings excluding bonuses ticked up, inflation‑adjusted growth slipped slightly. This nudges the possibility of a summer rate cut, especially if inflation dips toward the 2% target.”
“If rates do ease, household budgets could feel a breather, but the cost of living still chases them hard thanks to those interest‑rate hikes over the past two and a half years.”
“Unemployment figures remain tricky to read, but provisional payroll stats hint at a softening in the labor market with modest declines.”
So, there you have it – a quick snapshot of where UK pay is headed, and what it could mean for you and your bank account. Stay tuned, stay informed, and maybe keep that emergency pizza stash handy – you never know when interest rates might throw a curveball your way.
