Economists Warn: Recession Still Possible

UK Business Sinks for a Third Month – Recession on the Horizon?

Short‑term snapshot: The private sector’s output is down for a third consecutive month, and the latest PMI figures put us right on the edge of a downturn.

What Did the Numbers Say?

October PMI (S&P Global/CIPS): 48.6 – a tiny lift from 48.5 in September, still below the 50‑mark that signals growth.
Both services and manufacturing reported declines, underscoring that the slowdown is widespread.

Why Are Things Sinking?

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, stresses three main culprits:

Cost of living inflation – Grocery prices are creeping up, making everyone’s wallets a little lighter.
Higher interest rates – Borrowing has gotten pricier, so businesses are tightening belts.
Falling exports – The overseas demand for UK goods has dipped, taking a toll on the manufacturing side.

All of these factors combine to keep the economy teetering on the brink.

The Lighter Side of the Slowdown

While the data looks grim, there’s an upside: fewer people needing to meet deadlines means staff might finally get that overdue cup of coffee… or at least a “just one more email” break.

Looking Ahead

Economists warn that a recession isn’t off the table yet. The next few weeks will be the real eye‑opener – if the PMI figure teeters above 50, we might see some breathing room. If it stays below, brace yourselves for a deeper dive.

Stay Informed

Stay tuned to authoritative economic updates and remember – business downturns aren’t always the end of the world. They’re more like a gentle nudge to rethink strategies and maybe, just maybe, grab some extra coffee.

Oil prices continue to decline at the beginning of the week despite concerns about supply restrictions

Stock futures declined on Monday as Treasury yields increased

Gas supplies to Europe remain higher amid supply disruptions in the Middle East

Remembering Black Monday: 1987’s Lessons for Today

A Slow Decline, a Loud Warning

GDP slipped a barely noticeable 0.1% last quarter, but the buzz around the future has got everyone uneasy. A mild recession might already be lurking in the wings.

Key Takeaways:

GDP fell 0.1% – small, but hear the drumbeat.
Economists warning of a potential mild recession.

Manufacturing: In a Long‑Term Slump

For the eighth month running, the Manufacturing PMI has edged down to 45.3 – a slight lift from last month, but still well below the healthy threshold of 50.

What It Means for Factories:

Continued contraction in the sector.
Workers & businesses feel the pinch.

Jobs: The Chill Is Turning Into a Frostbite

October saw companies pulling back on hiring for the second month straight. The workforce is cooling, and that’s a red‑flag for the market’s future.

Employment Snapshot:

Second consecutive month of job cuts.
Potential ripple effect on consumer spending.

Money & Costs: The Redundancy Rollercoaster

John Glen, chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, cautions that redundancies are climbing as firms trim costs. Even with input‑cost inflation easing, wages stay high and fuel bills keep rising, eating into business margins.