Food Prices Take a Breather: Inflation Hits a Low Since 2022
Hey foodies and finance folks! The latest numbers from the CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index (FPI) have dropped like a soufflé left out too long—down for the fifth straight month, slipping below the 20% mark to a fresh 16.7% year–on–year. That’s the lowest since August 2022.
Why Supper’s Still More Expensive than Grocery Runs?
- The supermarket side, measured by the CPI, is hiking up at roughly 8.5% YoY.
- That’s half the pace of the FPI—cluttering the market with a clear divide.
- October also saw the first drop in month‑on‑month FPI prices since September 2021.
Category Breakdown: Some Things Are Squeezing the Waist, Others are Pumping It Up
- Oils & Fats — The only category edging below 10% inflation, sitting at a modest 4.0%.
- Vegetables — Still doing their dance at a high 30% inflation rate.
All in all, FPI inflation has taken a 6.2 percentage‑point swing down from its December 2022 high of 22.9% YoY.
Global Food Commodities Are Also Taking a Breather
The UN FAO Food Commodity Index averaged 120.6 points in October, slipping 0.7 points (about 0.5%) from September. It’s still falling, hugging a 10.9% cushion below the 2024 level.
Oil Prices Follow the Trend
Brent Crude has eased after its September spike, giving a hint that the market’s appetite might be cooling as well.
Inflation’s Rollercoaster Ride: What Those Price Tags Are Really Saying
As the UK’s currency takes a tumble, the ripple effect shows up wherever we buy. The pound has been fist‑bumping the dollar and euro since last summer, while wages keep higher than a kite, hovering around 8%. That duo is like a gumshoe that’ll keep inflation from slipping back to the sweet spot.
Food Prices Are on a Wild Jump
- Foodservice Price Index: up a staggering 40% in the past two years. Talk about a jump‑up!
- Inflation rate still stubbornly staying at 16.7%. We’re still not in the chill zone.
- Experts warn: “With numbers that high, keep a close eye on the trend. We’re not in 1–3% land yet.” — Shaun Allen, Prestige Purchasing CEO
Hope on the Horizon? 2024 Might Be The Way Out
- Downward trend in foodservice price inflation is picking up speed. A little bit of good news for both merchants and shoppers. James Ashurst, Client Director at CGA by NIQ says it.
- High rates still pulling hard on prices and profits. The road ahead isn’t a walk in the park.
- Long‑term outlook remains positive for foodservice chains. But that “good” is nothing like a clean exit from the weeds.
What Should You Expect?
Think of inflation as a roller coaster. It’s a nosedive into orange‑black clouds and then a sharp climb. It might slow down soon, but the track’s still bumpy. Keep your investor wallets tight, watch the market bullets, and stay ready for that next twist.
