Stocks Still Keep Rolling, Even While People Are Worried
The S&P 500 strutted up 1.1%, the Nasdaq chased it with a 1.4% jump, and the Russell 2000 somehow managed a 3% sprint—because when rates slide down, the low‑quality stocks love a good dance.
World’s Biggest Index Breaks Records
Yes, the MSCI All‑Country World Index hit a new high, and the FTSE 100 nudged up a third of a percent to 9 180, almost hitting its own record. Even crypto joined the party, with Ether humming a 4‑year high.
Inflation Dropped—But With a Twist
- The headline CPI was a cooler 2.7%, which is like a breath of fresh air for risk‑takeers.
- Hovering a bit higher in the background, core inflation climbed to a six‑month peak of 3.1%.
- Turns out tariff‑related goods didn’t lift off, so markets think a September Fed cut is a “sure‑fire” bet—though Treasuryie Scott Bessent warns it might go 50 bp instead of zero.
Should We Trust the Fed’s Guts?
Remember 2019: they dropped 100 bps between September and December, and the 10‑year yield did too. That was a line‑and‑slash story. Today, the dollar fell, EUR/USD skidded to 1.17, while sterling broke past 1.35, eyeing a July run at 1.358‑9.
Some Shares That Got a Little Cooler
- Circle: Shares dipped after the stablecoin boss said they’d issue 10 million new shares, even after a 53% revenue lift.
- CoreWeave: Fell 10% in after‑hours after reporting a bigger‑than‑expected loss.
- Salesforce: Down 30% YoY, even as CEO Marc Benioff denied that AI was gobbling up software.
Actionable Liquidity Heroes
When liquidity wins, so do the names that shed the most volatility:
- AST SpaceMobile +8%
- Oklo +8%
- BitMine Immersion Technologies +7%
- Archer Aviation +7%
- Opendoor Technologies +6%
- Nebius +6%
London Snapshot
Persimmon’s completions climbed by 4% and underlying operating profits surged 13%. Uncertainties loom with the upcoming Budget, but Beazley saw profits shrink a third and Balfour plans to hit its target.
Emerging Markets: The New Back‑Straight Follower
China’s growth outlook improved, the weaker dollar calms borrowing costs, and fund managers are breathing a sigh of relief. The USD is down about 10% this year, and strategies to strengthen emerging markets are in play.
RCI Hospitality—A Shaky Mirror of Cash Flow
RCI runs strip‑bars and similar spots. It suffered a major earnings miss—sales down >6%, earnings down 43%. A pretty good barometer for how much money the “good” crowd can flaunt in a downturn.
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