Gold Takes a Tiny Step Forward
Gold’s spot price nudged higher by just 0.12%, hovering close to the $2615 per ounce mark. Meanwhile, the continuous futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange sit snugly around $2629 per ounce.
Spot & Futures: The Numbers
- Spot rate: $2615 per ounce (up by 0.12%)
- Futures level: $2629 per ounce
- Contracts traded yesterday: ~111,400 (about one‑third of the monthly peak of 307,000)
Why the Market’s A Little Chill
Gold’s modest climb comes on the back of a noticeable dip in U.S. futures trading volume and a recent flood of negative economic data. Even though the market’s appetite has slackened, the metal is trying to squeeze out a few more points.
Interest Rate Rumors and Dollar Drama
FedWatch now pinpoints only a 6% chance of a rate cut in January, keeping the dollar and bond yields on a bearish run that squeezes gold. With investors wary of how next year’s cuts will unfold, the yellow metal struggled to ride yesterday’s positive data wave.
Who is in the Game? Institutional Sellers vs Buyers
- Institutional short sellers’ activity has waned due to the holiday season.
- Gold is attempting to capitalize on the reduced pressure from these heavy hitters.
- Trading activity remains light, giving room for a slow, steady drift upward.
Historical Trend: Year‑End Win Week
Since 2016, the last week of the year has been a winning streak for gold. That perennial optimism may cushion the price rally even when the broader backdrop looks a bit grim.
Data That Taste Less Sweet
- Consumer confidence fell short of expectations.
- New home sales lagged behind forecasts.
- Core durable goods orders disappoint.
These weak numbers signal caution about the economy’s ability to navigate high rates and stifled inflation. After some recent positive surprises, this gloomier data threatens to shift sentiment back into a skeptical mode.
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