Gold ETFs Prepare for Fresh Outflows Amid U.S. Economic Rally

Gold’s March Madness – A Trendy Tango with Inflation

Gold is hustling to keep those sweet, sword‑sharpening levels it hit last week. It’s on a three‑week winning streak right now, staring at the 1,980‑1,985 dollar per ounce zone.

What’s Shaking Things Up?

Spot gold is skating solidly between 1,980 and 1,985 dollars per ounce.
COMEX futures are still clinging to the 1,990 dollar mark.
Even after the latest US data—Prime Consumer Spending Index (PCE) showing a 3.7% year‑over‑year bump (and a 0.3% jump over last September)—gold’s price marched forward.
The Fed will check inflation next week, but investors are betting the rates stay put for a while.

Inflation: The Big Chill Factor

Inflation is still a long way from the Fed’s headline target, meaning interest rates are likely to stay high and steady through 2025.

GDP, on the other hand, is glowing. A 4.9% boom for Q3—our best performance in almost two years—has investors feeling bullish.

Durable Goods: A Solid Boost

Back in September:

Machine orders grew 0.9%.
Communications gear shot up 5.2%.
Core monthly PCE rose by 0.5%.

These look more like a sign of a sleepy economy humming, not gold’s investing wars.

Middle East – The Unpredictable Wildcard

Gold’s only reason to jitter remains the looming Middle‑East crisis, which could spill over far beyond borders and upset the world’s energy belt.

Even if the conflict calms down, we shouldn’t expect it to balloon beyond its current lines.

Gold ETFs: Bouncing Back? Not This Time.

Despite recent gains, the big gold ETFs are crying out for a break:

iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is on its 15th straight week of net outflows.
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is losing ground for a second week, after a brief splash of $940 million inflow on Oct 20.
Combined, both funds have seen more than $5.8 billion outflows YTD.

Investor mood? Negative around the “yellow” metal—likely because the US economy is bouncing back, and most corporate quarter ends are looking good.