Keir Starmer’s Approval Rocket: From Drab to Fab in Two Weeks
It’s been a wild ride these past fourteen days for Labour’s new head honcho, Mr. Starmer. Opinium’s latest poll shows his public approval shot up by a solid ten points. That’s the kind of bounce that even the Queen could applaud.
Why the Spike?
- Bravado Boost: Starmer’s folks now say he’s got the “whack of a hawk” eye on foreign affairs—a +15 net jump from a quiet –23% to a breezier –9%.
- Leadership Lunge: His command‑line charisma is up +13 points, moving from –30% to –17%. That’s almost saying “he’s got this” without officials saying it.
- Fear‑Finder: Starmer is now seen as 12 points braver than last month, shaving the negative from –28% to –16%.
- Decisive Dashes: Decision‑making has improved by +12, going from –20% to –8%. You could say he’s decided what to do, which is big.
- On Ukraine matters, Starmer earned a net +20% approval—half the weight of January’s slump.
Other Players on the Field
While Starmer’s rating is still technically in negative territory (now –23% vs the old –33%), he’s beating out a few opposition actors. Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey’ve had flickers of improvement, whereas Nigel Farage remains stubbornly flat.
Defence Debate: Labour Takes the Lead
Three‑fifths (60%) of voters feel the UK should level up its defence spending. And for the first time, Labour is outperforming the Conservatives on six key defence and foreign‑policy battlegrounds.
- Labour is 12 points ahead on working with allies to curb threats to the UK (versus a 1‑point edge back in January).
- They’re also 7 points ahead on how to allocate defence funding (up from –2).
All in all, a time for Starmer’s supporters to pop a celebratory pint (or a heartfelt toast) while his opponents stare at the scoreboard. The political game is still on—just with a new headline.
Budget cuts to fund defence spending
All‑Gaze on the Defence Dole – Spring Statement 2024
When the Treasury door closes on the Spring Statement on 26 March, the spotlight will stay glued to Rachel Reeves. The public has made it crystal clear: give the army more paint on the walls, and governments are ready to tighten the purse strings in other areas.
Defence Gold or Tax‑Treasure?
- 44 % of voters say the extra defence money should be chalked out of existing public spending.
- Only 17 % think it should come from a tax hike.
- Labour voters are tipping the scale in favour of cuts – 39 % vs 26 % for tax increases, a sharp departure from the ago‑map split.
Bottom line: “Skip the extra tax, cut something else” is the favourite mantra.
Who Should Pay the Price?
Most voters lean on the idea that defence budgets come from international aid cuts.
- 86 % of Reform supporters back this.
- 77 % of Conservative voters agree.
- 59 % of Labour voters are on board.
However, 32 % dream of slimming down welfare and benefits instead.
- Among that group, a mighty 72 % want unemployment benefits to take a rain check.
What Happens Next?
With the debate sharpened and public opinion leaning heavily towards “cut-case” solutions, the government will need to decide whether to shrink aid, trim welfare, or find a niche somewhere in between. Whatever choice Rachel Reeves brings, the debates are set to be as spicy as spitting ice in the middle of summer.
Negotiations around Ukraine
How the UK and Europe Feel About Ukraine Peace Talks
Top Take‑aways
- Brits see the UK & US as split on how to settle the Ukraine‑Russia showdown – a dip of -8% in unity.
- Across the rest of Europe, solidarity’s still strong. The UK and Ukraine lead the pack with a solid +61% boost.
Who’s Steering the Ship?
- Keir Starmer tops the list as the European leader Brits think is driving the peace process – 21% agree.
- Right behind him, Emmanuel Macron snagged 12%.
- And Ursula von der Leyen rounds out the trio with 9%.
Inside the Buzz: Priya Minhas Says…
Priya Minhas, Associate Director at Opinium’s Political & Social team, shares the latest spin on the crisis:
“The ever‑flipping Ukraine‑Russia saga is a game‑changer for Keir Starmer’s public image. He’s been juggling low approval ratings for years. But in the last two weeks, his crisis handling is sparking a makeover: he’s now viewed as decisive, brave, and ready to stand tall for Britain on the world stage. These early signs hint that his chops could rewrite public sentiment in his favor.”
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