Bitcoin’s Halving: Why Buying the Dips Still Makes Sense
After last Saturday’s halving, Bitcoin is trading Monday at roughly $66,139. The market’s reaction is a mix of technical support, cooling off from a sharp sell‑off, and a belief that the next bump could be even bigger.
What the Charts Are Saying
- Corrective pattern holds. Bitcoin’s price keeps bouncing back on dips, finding steady footing at the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of January’s lows.
- Resistance at the 50‑day MA. The 50‑day moving average has become a bump for anything above it. To break out of this bearish zone, Bitcoin would have to cross $67,000.
- Futures confirm a buying‑peak zone. Open‑interest data from futures suggests the price has reached a sweet spot where investors see buying opportunities.
Market Sentiment and Volume
Following the recent conflict escalation between Israel and Iran, the crypto markets absorbed the sell‑off quickly. Daily volume spiked 4.7 % to $2.33 trillion—a slight dip from a week ago’s $2.62 trillion.
So, while the halving lent some short‑term tailwind, it’s not enough on its own to drive a big rally. The 50‑day MA will continue to be a guard‑rail until that price barrier is breached.
The Classic Halving Playbook
- Historically, Bitcoin’s most significant price spikes have come 6–18 months after a halving.
- Every 210,000 blocks (about four years), new bitcoins rewarded per block cut in half—from 12.5 to 6.25 coins in 2020, then to 3.125 in 2024.
- With the total supply capped at 21 million, less new supply can tighten the market.
Why This Cycle Might Be Different
Unlike previous events, Bitcoin already hit a record before the midsummer cut. The surge has largely been driven by the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting institutional demand could outshine the halving’s impact.
- Geopolitical backdrop. High inflation, rising rates, and uncertain fiat policies push people toward Bitcoin as a hedge.
- Miner outlook. Even if the price stays flat, miners can still bump up earnings via higher transaction fees driven by Ordinals and Layer‑2 solutions.
What to Expect in 2024–2025
Projections are still rosy: Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the year’s end and $150,000 next year. Still, the halving’s immediate effect may be muted, with only a modest bump in a short‑term mining‑centric environment.
Bottom Line
Buy the dips, beware the 50‑day MA, and keep an eye on institutional moves. The halving alone isn’t a guarantee of a steep climb, but the combined forces of supply tightening and increased fees could keep the upward momentum alive.
