January: The Quiet Month That Sneaks Up a Surprise Invasion
When it comes to the whole stock‑market scene, January usually rolls in like a cold, unadventurous mug of tea. Most folks predict dip‑ish results, but the right playbook can flip the script.
Over the past two decades, a handful of companies have turned January into a shrimp‑bowl of gains. These stocks have topped the pack 77% of the time and pulled in an average of 5%—sometimes hitting a staggering 16% showcase.
The January Superstars (and How They Beat the S&P)
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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)—
81% of the time between January 5 and February 7, the stock rises.
Average win: 16.1% over the last 21 years. -
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)—
77% of the time from January 1 to February 14, the stock climbs.
Average win: 5.6% over the last 31 years. -
Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN)—
86% of the time between January 1 and February 1, the price jumps.
Average win: 5.4% over the last 21 years.
How It Stacks Up Against the S&P 500
The big index does a ca. 50% win rate in January, averaging a meager 0.1% gain.
Also, note that the “best days” aren’t a strict January‑only window. Those dates are fine‑tuned to each stock’s historical price quirks.
Chart It Out (Short Version)
Picture a single line that captures the yearly performance of these three power‑houses and shows exactly how they out‑performed the average.
Want to ride the January wave? Netflix’s binge‑boarding, D.R. Horton’s build‑out, or the casino‑card Wynn Resorts—pick your favorite and prepare for a month that could unexpectedly turn your portfolio into a fireworks show.
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Netflix Trade Snapshot: From January 5 to Feb 7
Ever wonder how the NASDAQ’s Netflix stock behaves between January 5 and February 7? Let’s break it down for you.
Historical Performance in 21 Years
- Average Return: 16% across all wins and losses.
- Consistent Bullish Trend: In 17 of those 21 years, prices finished higher.
Hot & Cold Moments
- Biggest Profit: A whopping 89% surge in 2013.
- Sharpest Decline: A 32% drop in 2022.
So while most Januaries rally, it’s not a guaranteed climb every time. Just like Netflix’s streaming library—full of surprises, because that’s how it keeps viewers coming back.
What Happens When Netflix Announces Earnings?
Picture this: It’s January 24, the day the streaming giant drops its quarterly numbers. Fans, traders, and your coffee‑hungry friend are all waiting at the edge of their seats. The rumor mill swirls, the stock shows jitters, and everyone is wondering – will Netflix’s shares swoop or soar?
Why the hype matters
The earnings announcement is a price lightning bolt for the market. Whether the candle goes high or low, the impact can be dramatic, giving investors plenty of ammo for their day‑trade playlists.
Historically, the bias is upside‑looking
Most of the time, when Netflix’s earnings hit the headlines, the stock climbs. It’s like a positive review for a beloved series – people feel good and buy more.
Turn of events: 2022
However, remember 2022, when the numbers stumbled. That year, the stock had a drastic drop after the earnings release, proving that surprises can go the other way too.
Checklist for the next earnings race
- Know the date: January 24 – drop the calendar on your desk.
- Watch the numbers: Revenue, growth, margin – all can yank the share price.
- React, don’t react: This isn’t the time for panic. Strategy wins.
- Laugh it off: If you’re unlucky, just remember the phrase: “Netflix and a nap” – but finance‑wise, critics will still brunch.
So, whether Netflix’s earnings bring a rocket‑ship to the market or a gusty tumble, be ready. The stock market loves a good plot twist, and nothing beats the drama of a quarterly report.
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)
DHI Trading Snapshot: A Playful Look at Yesterday’s Numbers
For the curious few who love a quick financial recap, here’s the plain‑spoken, smile‑inducing rundown of DHI’s trade from the start of the year to the close on February 14.
What We Gleaned from 31 Years of Cookie‑Crunching
- Average Return: 5.6% – pretty solid for a holiday‑ish season.
- Lucky Wins: 24 out of 31 trading years finished higher – the #winning squad!
- Record Breaker: A shiny 28% profit in 1998 – the high‑five moment for everyone.
- Biggest Bummer: A 23% loss in 2022 – not the highlight reel we hoped for.
Where Does DHI Stand Right Now?
Starting the year a spoonful down – a couple of percent off the chart – DHI’s January magic could still be on the cards. Historically, that month feels like hitting a jackpot. If you’d dreamt in those earlier days, you’re actually looking at a sweet opportunity to cheer up the price now, snagging it at a bargain that feels just a tad better than the original entry point.
Bottom Line, The Friendly Angle
Think of DHI’s past as a thrilling roller coaster: some dips, some highs, but a net increase that’s almost a cheerful 5.6%. With a small dip at the start, you’ve got a potential deal to grab that’s better than the starting price – a pretty encouraging sign for folks who love to get a good deal early in the year. Cheers to the next chapter!
Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN)
Wynn Resorts Trade Snapshot
When you folks talk about Wynn’s trading streak, it’s almost like a New Year’s tradition: you open the door at the first of the year and keep it shut until February 1st – that’s the magic window!
What the Numbers Say
- Over the last 21 years, the average return from all trades? A neat 5.4%.
- In 18 of those 21 years, the stock closed higher during the trade period – talk about consistency.
- The biggest payday? A 31% swing in 2019. And the nightmarish dip? A 29% loss back in 2009.
How It’s Doing Now
Fast forward to 2024 – Wynn has already nudged up a few percentage points. The sweet spot for jumping in? It’s right around the same price you started at once again: just shy of $90.83.
So if you’re looking to ride the wave, watch the ticker, and maybe buy when the price hums back near the winter mark. The playground is set, the stats are solid, and the timing’s got that classic “come-here-please-earn” vibe.
Understanding averages and seasonality
Seasonality in Asset Movements
Quick Refresher: Seasonality tells us how different assets tend to walk, stumble, or sprint at various times of the year. It’s essentially a nostalgia‑filled look back, not a crystal ball for this January.
What the Numbers Are Hunting For
These backward‑looking stats give a vibe—not a definitive forecast—about what might happen next. Think of it as the financial world’s favorite nostalgia playlist: it tells us about past trends, not future hits.
The Masking Power of Averages
- Hidden Volatility – Averages can hide the wild rollercoaster of stock prices. Even if the overall historical trend looks on the up‑side during January, there are plenty of big drops to keep investors on their toes.
- History Doesn’t Guarantee – Just because the data shows a light bias in January doesn’t mean every single ticker will follow suit. Stocks can still drop hard, just like a surprise plot twist in a movie.
Takeaway
Seasonality stats are more of a “lesson” than a “prediction.” They’re there for background context, not as an investment recommendation. Keep that in mind before you roll your stock analysis into a trust‑fund investment plan.
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